Baylor at Houston—

ST Model Houston -7.8

Trends · 2026 week 13

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Baylor — the basics

143 graded games since 2014

on the road	29-26	53%	+2.3	n=55
in a conference game	52-53	50%	-0.4	n=105
vs an FBS opponent	66-67	50%	-0.5	n=133
vs a P5 opponent	58-60	49%	-0.4	n=118
vs the Big 12	53-53	50%	-0.3	n=106
in November	22-23	49%	-0.4	n=45
in the last 5 seasons	31-32	49%	-0.4	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Baylor — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -6.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 143 graded games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=143
Baylor has failed to cover 3 straight	n=3

Baylor — combinations

25 lean Baylor · 52 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 61%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 59% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in November	11-7	61%from 53%	+4.4	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 61%	-2.2	n=9
on the road + vs the Big 12	25-22	53%from 53%	+2.5	n=47
+ in November	11-7	61%from 53%	+4.4	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 61%	-2.2	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-12	48%from 53%	+1.8	n=23
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	29-26	53%from 53%	+2.3	n=55
+ in November	11-7	61%from 53%	+4.4	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 61%	-2.2	n=9
+ vs the Big 12	25-22	53%from 53%	+2.5	n=47
+ in November	11-7	61%from 53%	+4.4	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-12	48%from 53%	+1.8	n=23
+ vs a P5 opponent	26-24	52%from 53%	+2.4	n=50
+ in November	11-7	61%from 52%	+4.4	n=18
+ vs the Big 12	25-22	53%from 52%	+2.5	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-13	48%from 52%	+1.8	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-14	46%from 53%	+1.5	n=26
on the road + in a conference game	24-22	52%from 53%	+2.5	n=46
+ in November	11-7	61%from 52%	+4.4	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 61%	-2.2	n=9
+ vs an FBS opponent	24-22	52%from 52%	+2.5	n=46
+ in November	11-7	61%from 52%	+4.4	n=18
+ vs a P5 opponent	24-22	52%from 52%	+2.5	n=46
+ vs the Big 12	24-22	52%from 52%	+2.5	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-12	45%from 52%	+1.7	n=22
+ vs a P5 opponent	24-22	52%from 52%	+2.5	n=46
+ in November	11-7	61%from 52%	+4.4	n=18
+ vs the Big 12	24-22	52%from 52%	+2.5	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-12	45%from 52%	+1.7	n=22
+ vs the Big 12	24-22	52%from 52%	+2.5	n=46
+ in November	11-7	61%from 52%	+4.4	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-12	45%from 52%	+1.7	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-12	45%from 52%	+1.7	n=22

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Houston — the basics

144 graded games since 2014

at home	31-39	44%	-1.1	n=70
in a conference game	46-50	48%	-1.2	n=96
vs an FBS opponent	71-66	52%	-0.3	n=137
vs a P5 opponent	27-21	56%	-1.2	n=48
vs the Big 12	16-17	48%	-3.0	n=33
in November	17-24	41%	-1.9	n=41
at this venue	31-38	45%	-0.9	n=69
in the last 5 seasons	33-30	52%	+0.3	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Houston — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.9 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 144 graded games: -0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=144
Houston has covered 2 straight	n=2

Houston — combinations

2 lean Houston · 139 lean against

Read this first. 162 combinations shown. The best one here is 56%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	27-21	56%from 52%	-1.2	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-17	50%from 56%	-2.5	n=34
+ vs the Big 12	16-17	48%from 56%	-3.0	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-15	48%from 48%	-3.5	n=29
+ in November	5-6	45%from 48%	-3.0	n=11
+ at this venue	6-10	38%from 48%	-3.2	n=16
+ at this venue	8-10	44%from 56%	-0.4	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-9	40%from 44%	-2.7	n=15
+ in November	5-7	42%from 56%	-3.1	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-7	42%from 42%	-3.1	n=12
+ at this venue	1-5	17%from 42%	-4.8	n=6
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	31-30	51%from 52%	+0.2	n=61
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	17-17	50%from 56%	-2.5	n=34
in a conference game + vs a P5 opponent	13-13	50%from 48%	-2.1	n=26
+ vs the Big 12	13-13	50%from 50%	-2.1	n=26
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-13	50%from 50%	-2.1	n=26
+ in November	5-6	45%from 50%	-3.0	n=11
+ at this venue	6-8	43%from 50%	-1.0	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-13	50%from 50%	-2.1	n=26
+ in November	5-6	45%from 50%	-3.0	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-6	45%from 45%	-3.0	n=11
+ at this venue	1-5	17%from 45%	-4.8	n=6
+ at this venue	6-8	43%from 50%	-1.0	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-8	43%from 43%	-1.0	n=14
in a conference game + vs the Big 12	13-13	50%from 48%	-2.1	n=26
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-13	50%from 50%	-2.1	n=26
+ in November	5-6	45%from 50%	-3.0	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-6	45%from 45%	-3.0	n=11
+ at this venue	1-5	17%from 45%	-4.8	n=6
+ at this venue	6-8	43%from 50%	-1.0	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-8	43%from 43%	-1.0	n=14

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.