South Carolina at Arkansas—

ST Model South Carolina -1.5

Trends · 2026 week 11

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

South Carolina — the basics

144 graded games since 2014

on the road	30-26	54%	+0.2	n=56
in a conference game	49-46	52%	+0.8	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	65-68	49%	-0.2	n=133
vs a P5 opponent	56-60	48%	-0.4	n=116
vs the SEC	49-46	52%	+0.8	n=95
in November	25-24	51%	+0.9	n=49
in the last 5 seasons	35-28	56%	+2.9	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

South Carolina — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 144 graded games: -0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=144

South Carolina — combinations

88 lean South Carolina · 1 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 69%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 62% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in November	12-7	63%from 54%	+0.7	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 63%	+3.0	n=8
in a conference game + in November	18-11	62%from 52%	+4.5	n=29
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-4	69%from 62%	+11.9	n=13
vs the SEC + in November	18-11	62%from 52%	+4.5	n=29
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-4	69%from 62%	+11.9	n=13
in November + in the last 5 seasons	13-8	62%from 51%	+7.4	n=21
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	14-9	61%from 54%	+3.9	n=23
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	32-26	55%from 49%	+3.0	n=58
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	22-18	55%from 52%	+3.6	n=40
vs a P5 opponent + in November	22-18	55%from 48%	+1.8	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 55%	+7.7	n=18
vs the SEC + in the last 5 seasons	22-18	55%from 52%	+3.6	n=40
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	30-26	54%from 54%	+0.2	n=56
+ in November	12-7	63%from 54%	+0.7	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 63%	+3.0	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-9	61%from 54%	+3.9	n=23
+ vs a P5 opponent	29-26	53%from 54%	+0.2	n=55
+ in November	12-7	63%from 53%	+0.7	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-9	59%from 53%	+4.0	n=22
+ vs the SEC	26-24	52%from 53%	+0.5	n=50
+ vs the SEC	26-24	52%from 54%	+0.5	n=50
+ in November	9-5	64%from 52%	+1.8	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 52%	+3.4	n=20
on the road + vs a P5 opponent	29-26	53%from 54%	+0.2	n=55
+ in November	12-7	63%from 53%	+0.7	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 63%	+3.0	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-9	59%from 53%	+4.0	n=22
+ vs the SEC	26-24	52%from 53%	+0.5	n=50
+ in November	9-5	64%from 52%	+1.8	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 52%	+3.4	n=20

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Arkansas — the basics

142 graded games since 2014

at home	33-42	44%	-4.4	n=75
in a conference game	51-44	54%	-0.7	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	70-63	53%	-1.3	n=133
vs a P5 opponent	61-50	55%	-0.4	n=111
vs the SEC	51-44	54%	-0.7	n=95
in November	20-24	45%	-2.3	n=44
at this venue	30-38	44%	-4.2	n=68
in the last 5 seasons	32-30	52%	-0.9	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Arkansas — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -4.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 142 graded games: -1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=142
Arkansas has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Arkansas — combinations

65 lean Arkansas · 66 lean against

Read this first. 162 combinations shown. The best one here is 57%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 64% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	61-50	55%from 53%	-0.4	n=111
+ in the last 5 seasons	26-22	54%from 55%	-0.9	n=48
+ vs the SEC	51-44	54%from 55%	-0.7	n=95
+ in November	20-19	51%from 54%	-0.8	n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-19	51%from 54%	-1.2	n=39
+ at this venue	20-20	50%from 54%	-2.6	n=40
+ in November	20-20	50%from 55%	-1.1	n=40
+ at this venue	11-11	50%from 50%	-1.8	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-10	41%from 50%	-5.6	n=17
+ at this venue	21-25	46%from 55%	-4.1	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-14	33%from 46%	-8.2	n=21
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	26-22	54%from 55%	-0.9	n=48
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	51-44	54%from 54%	-0.7	n=95
+ vs a P5 opponent	51-44	54%from 54%	-0.7	n=95
+ vs the SEC	51-44	54%from 54%	-0.7	n=95
+ in November	20-19	51%from 54%	-0.8	n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-19	51%from 54%	-1.2	n=39
+ at this venue	20-20	50%from 54%	-2.6	n=40
+ vs the SEC	51-44	54%from 54%	-0.7	n=95
+ in November	20-19	51%from 54%	-0.8	n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-19	51%from 54%	-1.2	n=39
+ at this venue	20-20	50%from 54%	-2.6	n=40
+ in November	20-19	51%from 54%	-0.8	n=39
+ at this venue	11-10	52%from 51%	-1.1	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-9	44%from 51%	-4.9	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-19	51%from 54%	-1.2	n=39
+ at this venue	20-20	50%from 54%	-2.6	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-11	35%from 50%	-7.5	n=17

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.