Florida at Kentucky—

ST Model Florida -1.7

Trends · 2026 week 11

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Florida — the basics

149 graded games since 2014

on the road	22-28	44%	-2.6	n=50
vs Kentucky	3-8	27%	-6.3	n=11
in a conference game	48-51	48%	-0.3	n=99
vs an FBS opponent	64-75	46%	-1.1	n=139
vs a P5 opponent	58-66	47%	-1.0	n=124
vs the SEC	48-51	48%	-0.3	n=99
in November	23-25	48%	-1.1	n=48
at this venue	1-5	17%	-11.6	n=6
in the last 5 seasons	28-35	44%	-2.8	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Florida — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -5.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 149 graded games: -0.9 pts vs their number per game	n=149

Florida — combinations

0 lean Florida · 147 lean against

Read this first. 177 combinations shown. The best one here is 50%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 64% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	20-20	50%from 48%	-1.9	n=40
vs the SEC + in the last 5 seasons	20-20	50%from 48%	-1.9	n=40
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	25-26	49%from 47%	-1.8	n=51
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	48-51	48%from 48%	-0.3	n=99
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-20	50%from 48%	-1.9	n=40
+ vs a P5 opponent	48-51	48%from 48%	-0.3	n=99
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-20	50%from 48%	-1.9	n=40
+ vs the SEC	48-51	48%from 48%	-0.3	n=99
+ in November	16-18	47%from 48%	-1.5	n=34
+ at this venue	1-5	17%from 48%	-11.6	n=6
+ vs the SEC	48-51	48%from 48%	-0.3	n=99
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-20	50%from 48%	-1.9	n=40
+ in November	16-18	47%from 48%	-1.5	n=34
+ at this venue	1-5	17%from 48%	-11.6	n=6
+ in November	16-18	47%from 48%	-1.5	n=34
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 47%	-3.3	n=16
+ at this venue	1-5	17%from 48%	-11.6	n=6
in a conference game + vs a P5 opponent	48-51	48%from 48%	-0.3	n=99
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-20	50%from 48%	-1.9	n=40
+ vs the SEC	48-51	48%from 48%	-0.3	n=99
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-20	50%from 48%	-1.9	n=40
+ in November	16-18	47%from 48%	-1.5	n=34
+ at this venue	1-5	17%from 48%	-11.6	n=6
+ in November	16-18	47%from 48%	-1.5	n=34
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 47%	-3.3	n=16
+ at this venue	1-5	17%from 48%	-11.6	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Kentucky — the basics

145 graded games since 2014

at home	42-41	51%	+0.1	n=83
vs Florida	8-3	73%	+6.3	n=11
in a conference game	45-51	47%	-0.7	n=96
vs an FBS opponent	68-66	51%	+0.3	n=134
vs a P5 opponent	57-58	50%	0.0	n=115
vs the SEC	45-51	47%	-0.7	n=96
in November	21-26	45%	+0.5	n=47
at this venue	42-41	51%	+0.1	n=83
in the last 5 seasons	35-27	56%	-1.6	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Kentucky — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -2.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 145 graded games: -0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=145
Kentucky has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Kentucky — combinations

95 lean Kentucky · 91 lean against

Read this first. 215 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 70% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + vs Florida	5-1	83%from 51%	+11.6	n=6
+ in a conference game	5-1	83%from 83%	+11.6	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-1	83%from 83%	+11.6	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-1	83%from 83%	+11.6	n=6
+ vs the SEC	5-1	83%from 83%	+11.6	n=6
+ at this venue	5-1	83%from 83%	+11.6	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-1	83%from 83%	+11.6	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-1	83%from 83%	+11.6	n=6
+ vs the SEC	5-1	83%from 83%	+11.6	n=6
+ at this venue	5-1	83%from 83%	+11.6	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-1	83%from 83%	+11.6	n=6
+ vs the SEC	5-1	83%from 83%	+11.6	n=6
+ at this venue	5-1	83%from 83%	+11.6	n=6
+ vs the SEC	5-1	83%from 83%	+11.6	n=6
+ at this venue	5-1	83%from 83%	+11.6	n=6
+ at this venue	5-1	83%from 83%	+11.6	n=6
vs Florida + at this venue	5-1	83%from 73%	+11.6	n=6
vs Florida + in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 73%	+10.4	n=5
vs Florida + in a conference game	8-3	73%from 73%	+6.3	n=11
+ at this venue	5-1	83%from 73%	+11.6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 73%	+10.4	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	8-3	73%from 73%	+6.3	n=11
+ at this venue	5-1	83%from 73%	+11.6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 73%	+10.4	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-3	73%from 73%	+6.3	n=11
+ vs the SEC	8-3	73%from 73%	+6.3	n=11
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-3	73%from 73%	+6.3	n=11
+ at this venue	5-1	83%from 73%	+11.6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 73%	+10.4	n=5
+ vs the SEC	8-3	73%from 73%	+6.3	n=11
+ vs the SEC	8-3	73%from 73%	+6.3	n=11
+ at this venue	5-1	83%from 73%	+11.6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 73%	+10.4	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.