Hawai'i at StanfordStanford -4o/u 50.5

ST Model Hawai'i -2.4(-6.4 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Hawai'i — the basics

136 graded games since 2014

on the road	23-41	36%	-3.3	n=64
as an underdog	45-50	47%	-0.4	n=95
spread 3.5-7	14-19	42%	-0.1	n=33
out of conference	21-29	42%	-2.8	n=50
vs an FBS opponent	56-70	44%	-1.6	n=126
vs a P5 opponent	12-18	40%	-4.0	n=30
in August	6-4	60%	-2.8	n=10
in the last 5 seasons	33-28	54%	-0.2	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Hawai'i — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 136 graded games: -1.8 pts vs their number per game	n=136
Hawai'i has covered 2 straight	n=2

Hawai'i — combinations

21 lean Hawai'i · 70 lean against

Read this first. 104 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 70% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs an FBS opponent + in August	6-3	67%from 44%	-1.1	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 67%	-9.4	n=6
as an underdog + in August	5-3	63%from 47%	-1.4	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 63%	-11.5	n=5
vs a P5 opponent + in August	5-3	63%from 40%	-4.5	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 63%	-9.4	n=6
as an underdog + in the last 5 seasons	25-20	56%from 47%	+1.4	n=45
out of conference + in August	5-4	56%from 42%	-5.9	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 56%	-10.6	n=7
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	31-25	55%from 44%	+0.3	n=56
spread 3.5-7 + in the last 5 seasons	7-6	54%from 42%	+3.4	n=13
as an underdog + vs an FBS opponent	45-50	47%from 47%	-0.4	n=95
+ in August	5-3	63%from 47%	-1.4	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 63%	-11.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	25-20	56%from 47%	+1.4	n=45
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-15	32%from 47%	-6.2	n=22
+ in August	4-3	57%from 32%	-5.3	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-8	27%from 32%	-9.4	n=11
as an underdog + spread 3.5-7	12-14	46%from 47%	+2.0	n=26
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 46%	+5.3	n=10
+ vs an FBS opponent	12-14	46%from 46%	+2.0	n=26
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 46%	+5.3	n=10
+ out of conference	2-5	29%from 46%	+0.5	n=7
+ vs an FBS opponent	2-5	29%from 29%	+0.5	n=7
in August + in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 60%	-10.6	n=7

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Stanford — the basics

138 graded games since 2014

at home	28-39	42%	-0.8	n=67
as a favorite	31-34	48%	-0.1	n=65
spread 3.5-7	15-16	48%	-0.0	n=31
out of conference	16-22	42%	-0.7	n=38
vs an FBS opponent	59-75	44%	-0.4	n=134
vs a G5 opponent	5-10	33%	-1.4	n=15
vs the Mountain West	2-4	33%	+0.3	n=6
in August	3-2	60%	+4.6	n=5
at this venue	28-39	42%	-0.8	n=67
in the last 5 seasons	20-39	34%	-1.9	n=59

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Stanford — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 138 graded games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=138
Stanford has covered 3 straight	n=3

Stanford — combinations

2 lean Stanford · 84 lean against

Read this first. 117 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
out of conference + in August	3-2	60%from 42%	+4.6	n=5
as a favorite + spread 3.5-7	9-9	50%from 48%	+0.2	n=18
+ vs an FBS opponent	9-9	50%from 50%	+0.2	n=18
+ at this venue	5-5	50%from 50%	-1.8	n=10
+ at this venue	5-5	50%from 50%	-1.8	n=10
at home + spread 3.5-7	8-8	50%from 42%	+0.7	n=16
+ vs an FBS opponent	8-8	50%from 50%	+0.7	n=16
+ at this venue	8-8	50%from 50%	+0.7	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 50%	+0.1	n=6
+ at this venue	8-8	50%from 50%	+0.7	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 50%	+0.1	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 50%	+0.1	n=6
spread 3.5-7 + at this venue	8-8	50%from 48%	+0.7	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 50%	+0.1	n=6
as a favorite + vs an FBS opponent	30-31	49%from 48%	+0.3	n=61
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-4	50%from 49%	+1.3	n=8
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 50%	-2.0	n=5
+ at this venue	13-20	39%from 49%	-1.6	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 49%	-1.9	n=6
spread 3.5-7 + vs an FBS opponent	15-16	48%from 48%	-0.0	n=31
+ at this venue	8-8	50%from 48%	+0.7	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 50%	+0.1	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-5	29%from 48%	-0.2	n=7
as a favorite + out of conference	10-11	48%from 48%	+0.5	n=21
+ vs an FBS opponent	9-8	53%from 48%	+1.9	n=17
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-4	50%from 53%	+1.3	n=8
+ at this venue	4-4	50%from 53%	-0.3	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 48%	-1.4	n=6
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-7	42%from 48%	-1.0	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 42%	-2.8	n=5
+ at this venue	3-6	33%from 42%	-3.5	n=9
+ at this venue	5-7	42%from 48%	-2.0	n=12

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.