NC State at VirginiaVirginia -5.5o/u 54.5

ST Model Virginia -7.2(+1.7 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

NC State — the basics

147 graded games since 2014

on the road	26-33	44%	-0.1	n=59
as an underdog	30-33	48%	-1.4	n=63
spread 3.5-7	22-25	47%	-0.2	n=47
in a conference game	47-48	49%	+0.3	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	66-72	48%	-0.1	n=138
vs a P5 opponent	54-61	47%	-0.9	n=115
vs the ACC	48-48	50%	+0.3	n=96
in August	1-4	20%	-8.1	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	28-34	45%	+0.1	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

NC State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 147 graded games: -0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=147
NC State has covered 3 straight	n=3

NC State — combinations

25 lean NC State · 102 lean against

Read this first. 163 combinations shown. The best one here is 55%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs the ACC + in the last 5 seasons	21-19	53%from 50%	+2.6	n=40
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	20-19	51%from 49%	+2.6	n=39
vs an FBS opponent + vs the ACC	48-48	50%from 48%	+0.3	n=96
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-19	53%from 50%	+2.6	n=40
vs a P5 opponent + vs the ACC	48-48	50%from 47%	+0.3	n=96
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-19	53%from 50%	+2.6	n=40
as an underdog + in a conference game	26-26	50%from 48%	+0.2	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-10	55%from 50%	+3.0	n=22
+ vs an FBS opponent	26-26	50%from 50%	+0.2	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-10	55%from 50%	+3.0	n=22
+ vs a P5 opponent	26-26	50%from 50%	+0.2	n=52
+ vs the ACC	26-26	50%from 50%	+0.2	n=52
+ vs a P5 opponent	26-26	50%from 50%	+0.2	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-10	55%from 50%	+3.0	n=22
+ vs the ACC	26-26	50%from 50%	+0.2	n=52
+ vs the ACC	26-26	50%from 50%	+0.2	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-10	55%from 50%	+3.0	n=22
as an underdog + vs the ACC	26-26	50%from 48%	+0.2	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-10	55%from 50%	+3.0	n=22
spread 3.5-7 + in a conference game	17-17	50%from 47%	+1.4	n=34
+ vs an FBS opponent	17-17	50%from 50%	+1.4	n=34
+ vs a P5 opponent	17-17	50%from 50%	+1.4	n=34
+ vs the ACC	17-17	50%from 50%	+1.4	n=34
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-8	47%from 50%	+1.9	n=15
+ vs a P5 opponent	17-17	50%from 50%	+1.4	n=34
+ vs the ACC	17-17	50%from 50%	+1.4	n=34
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-8	47%from 50%	+1.9	n=15
+ vs the ACC	17-17	50%from 50%	+1.4	n=34
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-8	47%from 50%	+1.9	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-8	47%from 50%	+1.9	n=15

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Virginia — the basics

140 graded games since 2014

at home	45-31	59%	-0.7	n=76
as a favorite	30-25	55%	-1.0	n=55
spread 3.5-7	28-19	60%	-0.1	n=47
in a conference game	55-39	59%	-0.2	n=94
vs an FBS opponent	74-55	57%	-0.1	n=129
vs a P5 opponent	65-51	56%	-0.3	n=116
vs the ACC	55-40	58%	-0.1	n=95
at this venue	44-31	59%	-0.8	n=75
in the last 5 seasons	33-24	58%	-0.7	n=57

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Virginia — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +3.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 140 graded games: -0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=140

Virginia — combinations

170 lean Virginia · 47 lean against

Read this first. 255 combinations shown. The best one here is 65%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 73% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	24-14	63%from 59%	-0.9	n=38
vs the ACC + in the last 5 seasons	24-15	62%from 58%	-0.8	n=39
at home + vs the ACC	29-19	60%from 59%	-0.6	n=48
+ at this venue	29-19	60%from 60%	-0.6	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 60%	-4.9	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 60%	-4.9	n=20
vs the ACC + at this venue	29-19	60%from 58%	-0.6	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 60%	-4.9	n=20
spread 3.5-7 + in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 60%	-1.7	n=20
spread 3.5-7 + vs an FBS opponent	28-19	60%from 60%	-0.1	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 60%	-1.7	n=20
+ vs a P5 opponent	24-18	57%from 60%	+0.1	n=42
+ vs the ACC	21-16	57%from 57%	-0.3	n=37
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-8	56%from 57%	-3.1	n=18
+ at this venue	12-11	52%from 57%	-3.4	n=23
+ vs the ACC	21-16	57%from 60%	-0.3	n=37
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-7	56%from 57%	-3.0	n=16
+ at this venue	12-10	55%from 57%	-2.9	n=22
+ at this venue	13-12	52%from 60%	-4.4	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 52%	-8.9	n=9
at home + in a conference game	29-20	59%from 59%	-0.9	n=49
+ vs the ACC	29-19	60%from 59%	-0.6	n=48
+ at this venue	29-19	60%from 60%	-0.6	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 60%	-4.9	n=20
+ vs an FBS opponent	29-20	59%from 59%	-0.9	n=49
+ vs the ACC	29-19	60%from 59%	-0.6	n=48
+ vs a P5 opponent	29-20	59%from 59%	-0.9	n=49
+ at this venue	29-20	59%from 59%	-0.9	n=49
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-10	52%from 59%	-5.5	n=21
+ vs a P5 opponent	29-20	59%from 59%	-0.9	n=49
+ vs the ACC	29-19	60%from 59%	-0.6	n=48
+ at this venue	29-20	59%from 59%	-0.9	n=49
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-10	52%from 59%	-5.5	n=21
+ at this venue	29-20	59%from 59%	-0.9	n=49
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-10	52%from 59%	-5.5	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-10	52%from 59%	-5.5	n=21

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.