How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Miami — the basics
151 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 29-29 | 50% | +0.9 | n=58 |
| as a favorite | 54-58 | 48% | -1.4 | n=112 |
| spread 21+ | 12-10 | 55% | -0.4 | n=22 |
| in a conference game | 42-53 | 44% | -2.5 | n=95 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 66-74 | 47% | -1.4 | n=140 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 53-66 | 45% | -1.8 | n=119 |
| vs the ACC | 42-53 | 44% | -2.5 | n=95 |
| in September | 26-18 | 59% | +2.8 | n=44 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 32-34 | 48% | -0.7 | n=66 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Miami — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: +4.2 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 151 graded games: -1.2 pts vs their number per game | n=151 |
| Miami has covered 5 straight | n=5 |
Miami — combinations
35 lean Miami · 99 lean against
Read this first. 150 combinations shown. The best one here is 88%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road + in September | 7-3 | 70%from 50% | +9.9 | n=10 |
| as a favorite + in September | 25-15 | 63%from 48% | +3.0 | n=40 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 9-8 | 53%from 63% | +0.7 | n=17 |
| in a conference game + in September | 5-3 | 63%from 44% | +7.2 | n=8 |
| vs the ACC + in September | 5-3 | 63%from 44% | +7.2 | n=8 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in September | 19-14 | 58%from 47% | +3.0 | n=33 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-8 | 47%from 58% | +0.7 | n=15 |
| spread 21+ + in September | 10-8 | 56%from 55% | -0.9 | n=18 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-4 | 56%from 56% | -0.3 | n=9 |
| as a favorite + spread 21+ | 12-10 | 55%from 48% | -0.4 | n=22 |
| + in September | 10-8 | 56%from 55% | -0.9 | n=18 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-4 | 56%from 56% | -0.3 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-6 | 54%from 55% | +0.5 | n=13 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 5-6 | 45%from 55% | -2.9 | n=11 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-4 | 50%from 45% | +0.1 | n=8 |
| + in September | 3-4 | 43%from 45% | -5.8 | n=7 |
| spread 21+ + in the last 5 seasons | 7-6 | 54%from 55% | +0.5 | n=13 |
| on the road + in the last 5 seasons | 13-12 | 52%from 50% | +2.6 | n=25 |
| on the road + vs an FBS opponent | 29-29 | 50%from 50% | +0.9 | n=58 |
| + in September | 7-3 | 70%from 50% | +9.9 | n=10 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 13-12 | 52%from 50% | +2.6 | n=25 |
| + vs the ACC | 22-24 | 48%from 50% | -0.3 | n=46 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 9-11 | 45%from 48% | +0.3 | n=20 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 24-27 | 47%from 50% | +0.3 | n=51 |
| + vs the ACC | 22-24 | 48%from 47% | -0.3 | n=46 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 11-12 | 48%from 47% | +1.6 | n=23 |
| + in September | 2-3 | 40%from 47% | +3.7 | n=5 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.