How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Duke — the basics
146 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 31-32 | 49% | +1.4 | n=63 |
| out of conference | 34-19 | 64% | +5.2 | n=53 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 72-63 | 53% | -0.1 | n=135 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 63-60 | 51% | -1.4 | n=123 |
| vs the Big Ten | 7-3 | 70% | +4.8 | n=10 |
| in September | 30-18 | 63% | +5.3 | n=48 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 35-28 | 56% | +1.4 | n=63 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Duke — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: +1.4 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 146 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game | n=146 |
| Duke has covered 3 straight | n=3 |
Duke — combinations
63 lean Duke · 9 lean against
Read this first. 80 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs the Big Ten + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 70% | +3.9 | n=5 |
| out of conference + vs the Big Ten | 7-3 | 70%from 64% | +4.8 | n=10 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 70% | +3.9 | n=5 |
| + in September | 6-3 | 67%from 70% | +4.8 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 67% | +3.9 | n=5 |
| vs an FBS opponent + vs the Big Ten | 7-3 | 70%from 53% | +4.8 | n=10 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 70% | +3.9 | n=5 |
| + in September | 6-3 | 67%from 70% | +4.8 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 67% | +3.9 | n=5 |
| vs a P5 opponent + vs the Big Ten | 7-3 | 70%from 51% | +4.8 | n=10 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 70% | +3.9 | n=5 |
| + in September | 6-3 | 67%from 70% | +4.8 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 67% | +3.9 | n=5 |
| out of conference + vs an FBS opponent | 28-14 | 67%from 64% | +5.9 | n=42 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 7-3 | 70%from 67% | +4.8 | n=10 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 70% | +3.9 | n=5 |
| + in September | 6-3 | 67%from 70% | +4.8 | n=9 |
| + in September | 17-9 | 65%from 67% | +6.6 | n=26 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-6 | 57%from 65% | +2.8 | n=14 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 19-11 | 63%from 67% | +3.3 | n=30 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 7-3 | 70%from 63% | +4.8 | n=10 |
| + in September | 12-6 | 67%from 63% | +5.8 | n=18 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-6 | 57%from 63% | +0.4 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 12-8 | 60%from 67% | +2.6 | n=20 |
| vs the Big Ten + in September | 6-3 | 67%from 70% | +4.8 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 67% | +3.9 | n=5 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.