North Carolina at Clemson—

ST Model Clemson -21

Trends · 2026 week 3

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

North Carolina — the basics

146 graded games since 2014

on the road	29-29	50%	+0.0	n=58
vs Clemson	1-5	17%	-3.0	n=6
in a conference game	47-52	47%	-0.3	n=99
vs an FBS opponent	62-74	46%	-1.3	n=136
vs a P5 opponent	55-66	45%	-1.0	n=121
vs the ACC	47-51	48%	-0.2	n=98
in September	17-25	40%	-3.6	n=42
in the last 5 seasons	24-38	39%	-3.9	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

North Carolina — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -5.3 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 146 graded games: -1.1 pts vs their number per game	n=146
North Carolina has failed to cover 3 straight	n=3

North Carolina — combinations

0 lean North Carolina · 96 lean against

Read this first. 110 combinations shown. The best one here is 50%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	29-29	50%from 50%	+0.0	n=58
+ vs a P5 opponent	26-27	49%from 50%	+0.9	n=53
+ vs the ACC	24-25	49%from 49%	+0.9	n=49
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-13	38%from 49%	-1.9	n=21
+ in September	2-7	22%from 49%	-5.3	n=9
+ vs the ACC	24-25	49%from 50%	+0.9	n=49
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-11	42%from 49%	-0.8	n=19
+ in September	1-6	14%from 49%	-6.8	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-13	43%from 50%	-1.5	n=23
+ in September	5-9	36%from 50%	-6.5	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 36%	-2.7	n=6
on the road + vs a P5 opponent	26-27	49%from 50%	+0.9	n=53
+ vs the ACC	24-25	49%from 49%	+0.9	n=49
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-11	42%from 49%	-0.8	n=19
+ in September	1-6	14%from 49%	-6.8	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-13	38%from 49%	-1.9	n=21
+ in September	2-7	22%from 49%	-5.3	n=9
on the road + in a conference game	24-25	49%from 50%	+0.8	n=49
+ vs the ACC	24-24	50%from 49%	+1.0	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-11	42%from 50%	-0.8	n=19
+ in September	1-5	17%from 50%	-7.4	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	24-25	49%from 49%	+0.8	n=49
+ vs the ACC	24-24	50%from 49%	+1.0	n=48
+ vs a P5 opponent	24-25	49%from 49%	+0.8	n=49
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-12	40%from 49%	-1.1	n=20
+ in September	1-5	17%from 49%	-7.4	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	24-25	49%from 49%	+0.8	n=49
+ vs the ACC	24-24	50%from 49%	+1.0	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-12	40%from 49%	-1.1	n=20
+ in September	1-5	17%from 49%	-7.4	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-12	40%from 49%	-1.1	n=20
+ in September	1-5	17%from 49%	-7.4	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Clemson — the basics

159 graded games since 2014

at home	38-41	48%	-0.4	n=79
vs North Carolina	5-1	83%	+3.0	n=6
in a conference game	59-43	58%	+1.9	n=102
vs an FBS opponent	81-67	55%	+1.4	n=148
vs a P5 opponent	76-62	55%	+1.5	n=138
vs the ACC	58-42	58%	+1.9	n=100
in September	18-24	43%	-2.3	n=42
at this venue	38-41	48%	-0.4	n=79
in the last 5 seasons	29-38	43%	-2.7	n=67

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Clemson — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -2.9 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 159 graded games: +1.3 pts vs their number per game	n=159

Clemson — combinations

74 lean Clemson · 78 lean against

Read this first. 177 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 70% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs North Carolina + in a conference game	5-1	83%from 83%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-1	83%from 83%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-1	83%from 83%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs the ACC	5-1	83%from 83%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-1	83%from 83%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs the ACC	5-1	83%from 83%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs the ACC	5-1	83%from 83%	+3.0	n=6
vs North Carolina + vs an FBS opponent	5-1	83%from 83%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-1	83%from 83%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs the ACC	5-1	83%from 83%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs the ACC	5-1	83%from 83%	+3.0	n=6
vs North Carolina + vs a P5 opponent	5-1	83%from 83%	+3.0	n=6
+ vs the ACC	5-1	83%from 83%	+3.0	n=6
vs North Carolina + vs the ACC	5-1	83%from 83%	+3.0	n=6
in a conference game + vs the ACC	58-42	58%from 58%	+1.9	n=100
+ at this venue	26-22	54%from 58%	-0.6	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-10	50%from 54%	-3.3	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	22-20	52%from 58%	-1.7	n=42
+ in September	10-11	48%from 58%	-4.1	n=21
+ at this venue	3-5	38%from 48%	-9.0	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-7	36%from 48%	-8.3	n=11
vs an FBS opponent + vs the ACC	58-42	58%from 55%	+1.9	n=100
+ at this venue	26-22	54%from 58%	-0.6	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-10	50%from 54%	-3.3	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	22-20	52%from 58%	-1.7	n=42
+ in September	10-11	48%from 58%	-4.1	n=21
+ at this venue	3-5	38%from 48%	-9.0	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-7	36%from 48%	-8.3	n=11

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.