SMU at LouisvilleLouisville -1.5o/u 56.5

ST Model Louisville -2.6(+1.1 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 3

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

SMU — the basics

145 graded games since 2014

on the road	29-40	42%	-1.9	n=69
as an underdog	27-35	44%	-2.8	n=62
spread 1-3	10-11	48%	+1.3	n=21
in a conference game	46-49	48%	+0.7	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	65-73	47%	-0.8	n=138
vs a P5 opponent	19-21	48%	+1.2	n=40
vs the ACC	11-7	61%	+5.9	n=18
in September	25-21	54%	+1.0	n=46
in the last 5 seasons	32-33	49%	+1.8	n=65

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

SMU — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +3.1 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 145 graded games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=145

SMU — combinations

48 lean SMU · 72 lean against

Read this first. 134 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in a conference game + in September	4-1	80%from 48%	+9.2	n=5
in a conference game + vs a P5 opponent	11-6	65%from 48%	+7.6	n=17
+ vs the ACC	11-6	65%from 65%	+7.6	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 65%	+7.6	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 65%	+7.6	n=17
in a conference game + vs the ACC	11-6	65%from 48%	+7.6	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 65%	+7.6	n=17
on the road + vs the ACC	5-3	63%from 42%	+5.7	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 63%	+5.7	n=8
vs an FBS opponent + vs the ACC	11-7	61%from 47%	+5.9	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 61%	+5.9	n=18
vs a P5 opponent + vs the ACC	11-7	61%from 48%	+5.9	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 61%	+5.9	n=18
vs the ACC + in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 61%	+5.9	n=18
on the road + vs a P5 opponent	11-8	58%from 42%	+3.6	n=19
+ vs the ACC	5-3	63%from 58%	+5.7	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 63%	+5.7	n=8
+ in September	6-4	60%from 58%	+4.3	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-4	20%from 60%	-0.4	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-8	43%from 58%	+1.6	n=14
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	24-18	57%from 48%	+4.3	n=42
on the road + in September	10-9	53%from 42%	+0.9	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-6	25%from 53%	+0.9	n=8
vs an FBS opponent + in September	21-19	53%from 47%	+0.4	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-10	38%from 53%	+1.5	n=16

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Louisville — the basics

148 graded games since 2014

at home	35-39	47%	+2.0	n=74
as a favorite	44-47	48%	+1.1	n=91
spread 1-3	13-13	50%	+3.1	n=26
in a conference game	41-55	43%	-0.4	n=96
vs an FBS opponent	63-77	45%	-0.4	n=140
vs a P5 opponent	52-70	43%	-1.1	n=122
vs the ACC	40-55	42%	-0.5	n=95
in September	23-22	51%	+0.9	n=45
at this venue	35-39	47%	+2.0	n=74
in the last 5 seasons	31-34	48%	+2.1	n=65

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Louisville — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 148 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=148

Louisville — combinations

87 lean Louisville · 164 lean against

Read this first. 347 combinations shown. The best one here is 64%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
spread 1-3 + in the last 5 seasons	10-6	63%from 50%	+7.4	n=16
at home + in September	14-11	56%from 47%	+3.4	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 56%	+6.4	n=10
+ at this venue	14-11	56%from 56%	+3.4	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 56%	+6.4	n=10
in September + at this venue	14-11	56%from 51%	+3.4	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 56%	+6.4	n=10
as a favorite + in September	16-13	55%from 48%	+1.2	n=29
+ at this venue	10-8	56%from 55%	+3.1	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 56%	+6.4	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 55%	+1.6	n=12
as a favorite + spread 1-3	7-6	54%from 48%	+4.3	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 54%	+6.1	n=9
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-6	54%from 54%	+4.3	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 54%	+6.1	n=9
+ vs a P5 opponent	6-6	50%from 54%	+3.5	n=12
+ vs the ACC	5-5	50%from 54%	+3.5	n=10
+ at this venue	4-4	50%from 54%	+5.7	n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent	6-6	50%from 54%	+3.5	n=12
+ vs the ACC	5-5	50%from 50%	+3.5	n=10
+ at this venue	4-4	50%from 50%	+5.7	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 50%	+5.0	n=8
+ in a conference game	5-5	50%from 54%	+3.5	n=10
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-5	50%from 50%	+3.5	n=10
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-5	50%from 50%	+3.5	n=10
+ vs the ACC	5-5	50%from 50%	+3.5	n=10
+ at this venue	3-3	50%from 50%	+6.6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 50%	+5.7	n=6
+ vs the ACC	5-5	50%from 54%	+3.5	n=10
+ at this venue	3-3	50%from 50%	+6.6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 50%	+5.7	n=6
+ at this venue	4-4	50%from 54%	+5.7	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 50%	+7.9	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.