Central Michigan at Miami—

ST Model Miami -40.1

Trends · 2026 week 4

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Central Michigan — the basics

135 graded games since 2014

on the road	38-27	58%	+1.5	n=65
out of conference	22-23	49%	-2.9	n=45
vs an FBS opponent	66-60	52%	-0.4	n=126
vs a P5 opponent	13-12	52%	-1.0	n=25
vs the ACC	2-5	29%	-7.1	n=7
in September	20-19	51%	-0.9	n=39
in the last 5 seasons	28-32	47%	-1.0	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Central Michigan — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 135 graded games: -0.3 pts vs their number per game	n=135
Central Michigan has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Central Michigan — combinations

26 lean Central Michigan · 35 lean against

Read this first. 82 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 69% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in September	13-9	59%from 58%	+0.9	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 59%	-0.6	n=9
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	38-27	58%from 58%	+1.5	n=65
+ in September	13-9	59%from 58%	+0.9	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 59%	-0.6	n=9
+ vs a P5 opponent	10-9	53%from 58%	-0.1	n=19
+ in September	10-9	53%from 53%	-0.1	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 53%	-3.2	n=8
+ vs the ACC	2-4	33%from 53%	-3.3	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-17	43%from 58%	-1.7	n=30
+ vs the ACC	2-4	33%from 58%	-3.3	n=6
+ in September	2-4	33%from 33%	-3.3	n=6
on the road + out of conference	12-9	57%from 58%	+1.7	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 57%	+1.1	n=10
+ vs an FBS opponent	12-9	57%from 57%	+1.7	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 57%	+1.1	n=10
+ in September	11-9	55%from 57%	+0.9	n=20
+ vs a P5 opponent	10-9	53%from 57%	-0.1	n=19
+ vs the ACC	2-4	33%from 57%	-3.3	n=6
+ in September	11-9	55%from 57%	+0.9	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 55%	-0.6	n=9
+ vs a P5 opponent	10-9	53%from 57%	-0.1	n=19
+ in September	10-9	53%from 53%	-0.1	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 53%	-3.2	n=8
+ vs the ACC	2-4	33%from 53%	-3.3	n=6
+ vs the ACC	2-4	33%from 57%	-3.3	n=6
+ in September	2-4	33%from 33%	-3.3	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Miami — the basics

151 graded games since 2014

at home	39-40	49%	-1.8	n=79
out of conference	31-25	55%	+1.1	n=56
vs an FBS opponent	66-74	47%	-1.4	n=140
vs a G5 opponent	20-12	63%	+1.4	n=32
vs the Mid-American	4-1	80%	+8.0	n=5
in September	26-18	59%	+2.8	n=44
at this venue	40-40	50%	-1.7	n=80
in the last 5 seasons	32-34	48%	-0.7	n=66

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Miami — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 151 graded games: -1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=151
Miami has covered 5 straight	n=5

Miami — combinations

85 lean Miami · 14 lean against

Read this first. 113 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 64% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
out of conference + vs the Mid-American	4-1	80%from 55%	+8.0	n=5
+ in September	4-1	80%from 80%	+8.0	n=5
vs an FBS opponent + vs the Mid-American	4-1	80%from 47%	+8.0	n=5
+ in September	4-1	80%from 80%	+8.0	n=5
vs a G5 opponent + vs the Mid-American	4-1	80%from 63%	+8.0	n=5
+ in September	4-1	80%from 80%	+8.0	n=5
vs the Mid-American + in September	4-1	80%from 80%	+8.0	n=5
vs a G5 opponent + in September	19-9	68%from 63%	+3.5	n=28
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-5	62%from 68%	+3.7	n=13
+ at this venue	14-9	61%from 68%	+0.8	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 61%	+1.7	n=11
out of conference + vs a G5 opponent	20-12	63%from 55%	+1.4	n=32
+ vs the Mid-American	4-1	80%from 63%	+8.0	n=5
+ in September	4-1	80%from 80%	+8.0	n=5
+ in September	19-9	68%from 63%	+3.5	n=28
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-5	62%from 68%	+3.7	n=13
+ at this venue	14-9	61%from 68%	+0.8	n=23
+ at this venue	15-9	63%from 63%	+1.1	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 63%	+1.7	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-5	62%from 63%	+3.7	n=13
out of conference + at this venue	20-12	63%from 55%	+2.0	n=32
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-6	63%from 63%	+1.6	n=16
at home + vs a G5 opponent	15-9	63%from 49%	+1.1	n=24
+ at this venue	15-9	63%from 63%	+1.1	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 63%	+1.7	n=11
+ in September	14-9	61%from 63%	+0.8	n=23
+ at this venue	14-9	61%from 61%	+0.8	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 61%	+1.7	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 63%	+1.7	n=11

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.