Louisville at NC State—

ST Model Louisville -1.7

Trends · 2026 week 5

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Louisville — the basics

148 graded games since 2014

on the road	27-30	47%	-1.4	n=57
vs NC State	4-4	50%	-0.2	n=8
in a conference game	41-55	43%	-0.4	n=96
vs an FBS opponent	63-77	45%	-0.4	n=140
vs a P5 opponent	52-70	43%	-1.1	n=122
vs the ACC	40-55	42%	-0.5	n=95
in October	17-28	38%	-1.6	n=45
in the last 5 seasons	31-34	48%	+2.1	n=65

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Louisville — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 148 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=148

Louisville — combinations

0 lean Louisville · 93 lean against

Read this first. 124 combinations shown. The best one here is 50%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 62% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	11-11	50%from 47%	-0.8	n=22
vs NC State + in a conference game	4-4	50%from 50%	-0.2	n=8
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-4	50%from 50%	-0.2	n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-4	50%from 50%	-0.2	n=8
+ vs the ACC	4-4	50%from 50%	-0.2	n=8
+ in October	2-3	40%from 50%	+0.8	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-4	50%from 50%	-0.2	n=8
+ vs the ACC	4-4	50%from 50%	-0.2	n=8
+ in October	2-3	40%from 50%	+0.8	n=5
+ vs the ACC	4-4	50%from 50%	-0.2	n=8
+ in October	2-3	40%from 50%	+0.8	n=5
+ in October	2-3	40%from 50%	+0.8	n=5
vs NC State + vs an FBS opponent	4-4	50%from 50%	-0.2	n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-4	50%from 50%	-0.2	n=8
+ vs the ACC	4-4	50%from 50%	-0.2	n=8
+ in October	2-3	40%from 50%	+0.8	n=5
+ vs the ACC	4-4	50%from 50%	-0.2	n=8
+ in October	2-3	40%from 50%	+0.8	n=5
+ in October	2-3	40%from 50%	+0.8	n=5
vs NC State + vs a P5 opponent	4-4	50%from 50%	-0.2	n=8
+ vs the ACC	4-4	50%from 50%	-0.2	n=8
+ in October	2-3	40%from 50%	+0.8	n=5
+ in October	2-3	40%from 50%	+0.8	n=5
vs NC State + vs the ACC	4-4	50%from 50%	-0.2	n=8
+ in October	2-3	40%from 50%	+0.8	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

NC State — the basics

147 graded games since 2014

at home	40-36	53%	+0.5	n=76
vs Louisville	4-4	50%	+0.2	n=8
in a conference game	47-48	49%	+0.3	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	66-72	48%	-0.1	n=138
vs a P5 opponent	54-61	47%	-0.9	n=115
vs the ACC	48-48	50%	+0.3	n=96
in October	17-24	41%	-2.9	n=41
at this venue	40-36	53%	+0.5	n=76
in the last 5 seasons	28-34	45%	+0.1	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

NC State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 147 graded games: -0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=147
NC State has covered 3 straight	n=3

NC State — combinations

88 lean NC State · 74 lean against

Read this first. 188 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs Louisville + in October	3-2	60%from 50%	-0.8	n=5
at home + in the last 5 seasons	18-15	55%from 53%	+2.6	n=33
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	18-15	55%from 53%	+2.6	n=33
at home + vs the ACC	26-22	54%from 53%	+0.8	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 54%	+5.3	n=20
+ at this venue	26-22	54%from 54%	+0.8	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 54%	+5.3	n=20
+ in October	6-9	40%from 54%	-1.9	n=15
+ at this venue	6-9	40%from 40%	-1.9	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 40%	-0.3	n=6
vs the ACC + at this venue	26-22	54%from 50%	+0.8	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 54%	+5.3	n=20
at home + in a conference game	25-22	53%from 53%	+0.8	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-8	58%from 53%	+5.5	n=19
+ vs an FBS opponent	25-22	53%from 53%	+0.8	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-8	58%from 53%	+5.5	n=19
+ vs a P5 opponent	25-22	53%from 53%	+0.8	n=47
+ vs the ACC	25-22	53%from 53%	+0.8	n=47
+ at this venue	25-22	53%from 53%	+0.8	n=47
+ in October	6-9	40%from 53%	-1.9	n=15
+ vs a P5 opponent	25-22	53%from 53%	+0.8	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-8	58%from 53%	+5.5	n=19
+ vs the ACC	25-22	53%from 53%	+0.8	n=47
+ at this venue	25-22	53%from 53%	+0.8	n=47
+ in October	6-9	40%from 53%	-1.9	n=15
+ vs the ACC	25-22	53%from 53%	+0.8	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-8	58%from 53%	+5.5	n=19
+ at this venue	25-22	53%from 53%	+0.8	n=47
+ in October	6-9	40%from 53%	-1.9	n=15
+ at this venue	25-22	53%from 53%	+0.8	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-8	58%from 53%	+5.5	n=19
+ in October	6-9	40%from 53%	-1.9	n=15
+ at this venue	6-9	40%from 40%	-1.9	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 40%	-0.3	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.