Notre Dame at North CarolinaNotre Dame -23.5o/u 55.5

ST Model Notre Dame -27.1(-3.6 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 5

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Notre Dame — the basics

148 graded games since 2014

on the road	27-21	56%	+2.8	n=48
vs North Carolina	4-1	80%	+6.5	n=5
as a favorite	72-51	59%	+4.0	n=123
spread 21+	14-13	52%	+1.6	n=27
out of conference	77-55	58%	+3.3	n=132
vs an FBS opponent	85-62	58%	+3.5	n=147
vs a P5 opponent	70-50	58%	+3.9	n=120
vs the ACC	39-27	59%	+3.8	n=66
in October	22-14	61%	+3.9	n=36
in the last 5 seasons	43-23	65%	+6.4	n=66

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Notre Dame — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 148 graded games: +3.5 pts vs their number per game	n=148

Notre Dame — combinations

185 lean Notre Dame · 8 lean against

Read this first. 213 combinations shown. The best one here is 88%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 82% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs North Carolina + vs an FBS opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+6.5	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+6.5	n=5
+ vs the ACC	4-1	80%from 80%	+6.5	n=5
+ vs the ACC	4-1	80%from 80%	+6.5	n=5
vs North Carolina + vs a P5 opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+6.5	n=5
+ vs the ACC	4-1	80%from 80%	+6.5	n=5
vs North Carolina + vs the ACC	4-1	80%from 80%	+6.5	n=5
vs the ACC + in the last 5 seasons	19-7	73%from 59%	+8.9	n=26
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	37-14	73%from 58%	+8.8	n=51
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	14-7	67%from 56%	+6.8	n=21
vs the ACC + in October	14-7	67%from 59%	+4.9	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-1	88%from 67%	+8.3	n=8
as a favorite + in the last 5 seasons	36-19	65%from 59%	+6.2	n=55
in October + in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 61%	+5.6	n=17
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	42-23	65%from 58%	+6.4	n=65
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	38-22	63%from 58%	+6.0	n=60
vs a P5 opponent + in October	19-11	63%from 58%	+4.0	n=30
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-3	77%from 63%	+6.5	n=13
as a favorite + in October	20-12	63%from 59%	+5.1	n=32
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-5	67%from 63%	+6.6	n=15
out of conference + in October	18-11	62%from 58%	+3.8	n=29
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-6	57%from 62%	+5.7	n=14
vs an FBS opponent + in October	22-14	61%from 58%	+3.9	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 61%	+5.6	n=17
out of conference + vs the ACC	31-20	61%from 58%	+3.5	n=51
+ in October	11-4	73%from 61%	+5.2	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-1	83%from 73%	+9.3	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-6	71%from 61%	+8.2	n=21

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

North Carolina — the basics

146 graded games since 2014

at home	33-39	46%	-1.2	n=72
vs Notre Dame	1-4	20%	-6.5	n=5
as an underdog	29-31	48%	+0.7	n=60
spread 21+	9-7	56%	-0.9	n=16
out of conference	20-27	43%	-2.8	n=47
vs an FBS opponent	62-74	46%	-1.3	n=136
vs a P5 opponent	55-66	45%	-1.0	n=121
vs the FBS Independents	1-5	17%	-8.0	n=6
in October	25-18	58%	+1.4	n=43
at this venue	33-39	46%	-1.2	n=72
in the last 5 seasons	24-38	39%	-3.9	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

North Carolina — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -5.3 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 146 graded games: -1.1 pts vs their number per game	n=146
North Carolina has failed to cover 3 straight	n=3

North Carolina — combinations

36 lean North Carolina · 99 lean against

Read this first. 158 combinations shown. The best one here is 71%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 78% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
spread 21+ + vs an FBS opponent	5-2	71%from 56%	+0.7	n=7
+ at this venue	5-2	71%from 71%	+0.7	n=7
as an underdog + in October	13-9	59%from 48%	+3.0	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 59%	+4.4	n=9
+ at this venue	3-6	33%from 59%	-2.6	n=9
vs an FBS opponent + in October	25-18	58%from 46%	+1.4	n=43
+ at this venue	12-10	55%from 58%	+0.1	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 55%	+0.5	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 58%	+2.0	n=19
vs a P5 opponent + in October	25-18	58%from 45%	+1.4	n=43
+ at this venue	12-10	55%from 58%	+0.1	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 55%	+0.5	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 58%	+2.0	n=19
at home + spread 21+	9-7	56%from 46%	-0.9	n=16
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-2	71%from 56%	+0.7	n=7
+ at this venue	5-2	71%from 71%	+0.7	n=7
+ at this venue	9-7	56%from 56%	-0.9	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 56%	-4.0	n=7
+ out of conference	7-6	54%from 56%	-1.0	n=13
+ at this venue	7-6	54%from 54%	-1.0	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 54%	0.0	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 56%	-4.0	n=7
spread 21+ + at this venue	9-7	56%from 56%	-0.9	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 56%	-4.0	n=7
at home + in October	12-10	55%from 46%	+0.1	n=22
+ at this venue	12-10	55%from 55%	+0.1	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 55%	+0.5	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 55%	+0.5	n=12

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.