How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Florida State — the basics
145 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 23-31 | 43% | -3.9 | n=54 |
| vs Louisville | 5-5 | 50% | -6.4 | n=10 |
| in a conference game | 41-55 | 43% | -3.8 | n=96 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 60-76 | 44% | -3.2 | n=136 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 52-69 | 43% | -3.4 | n=121 |
| vs the ACC | 39-55 | 41% | -4.0 | n=94 |
| in October | 19-24 | 44% | -2.5 | n=43 |
| at this venue | 2-3 | 40% | -14.3 | n=5 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 31-31 | 50% | -1.0 | n=62 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Florida State — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -0.8 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 145 graded games: -3.1 pts vs their number per game | n=145 |
| Florida State has failed to cover 2 straight | n=2 |
Florida State — combinations
5 lean Florida State · 134 lean against
Read this first. 166 combinations shown. The best one here is 57%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| in October + in the last 5 seasons | 9-9 | 50%from 44% | +0.6 | n=18 |
| vs Louisville + in a conference game | 5-5 | 50%from 50% | -6.4 | n=10 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 5-5 | 50%from 50% | -6.4 | n=10 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 5-5 | 50%from 50% | -6.4 | n=10 |
| + vs the ACC | 5-5 | 50%from 50% | -6.4 | n=10 |
| + at this venue | 2-3 | 40%from 50% | -14.3 | n=5 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 5-5 | 50%from 50% | -6.4 | n=10 |
| + vs the ACC | 5-5 | 50%from 50% | -6.4 | n=10 |
| + at this venue | 2-3 | 40%from 50% | -14.3 | n=5 |
| + vs the ACC | 5-5 | 50%from 50% | -6.4 | n=10 |
| + at this venue | 2-3 | 40%from 50% | -14.3 | n=5 |
| + at this venue | 2-3 | 40%from 50% | -14.3 | n=5 |
| vs Louisville + vs an FBS opponent | 5-5 | 50%from 50% | -6.4 | n=10 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 5-5 | 50%from 50% | -6.4 | n=10 |
| + vs the ACC | 5-5 | 50%from 50% | -6.4 | n=10 |
| + at this venue | 2-3 | 40%from 50% | -14.3 | n=5 |
| + vs the ACC | 5-5 | 50%from 50% | -6.4 | n=10 |
| + at this venue | 2-3 | 40%from 50% | -14.3 | n=5 |
| + at this venue | 2-3 | 40%from 50% | -14.3 | n=5 |
| vs Louisville + vs a P5 opponent | 5-5 | 50%from 50% | -6.4 | n=10 |
| + vs the ACC | 5-5 | 50%from 50% | -6.4 | n=10 |
| + at this venue | 2-3 | 40%from 50% | -14.3 | n=5 |
| + at this venue | 2-3 | 40%from 50% | -14.3 | n=5 |
| vs Louisville + vs the ACC | 5-5 | 50%from 50% | -6.4 | n=10 |
| + at this venue | 2-3 | 40%from 50% | -14.3 | n=5 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.