Stanford at Notre Dame—

ST Model Notre Dame -32.9

Trends · 2026 week 6

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Stanford — the basics

138 graded games since 2014

on the road	26-36	42%	-1.2	n=62
vs Notre Dame	4-5	44%	-1.1	n=9
out of conference	16-22	42%	-0.7	n=38
vs an FBS opponent	59-75	44%	-0.4	n=134
vs a P5 opponent	55-68	45%	-0.5	n=123
vs the FBS Independents	5-6	45%	-0.5	n=11
in October	14-21	40%	-0.9	n=35
in the last 5 seasons	20-39	34%	-1.9	n=59

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Stanford — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 138 graded games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=138
Stanford has covered 3 straight	n=3

Stanford — combinations

0 lean Stanford · 77 lean against

Read this first. 85 combinations shown. The best one here is 48%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 61% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
out of conference + vs a P5 opponent	11-12	48%from 42%	-0.3	n=23
+ vs the FBS Independents	5-6	45%from 48%	-0.5	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 45%	-2.8	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 48%	-2.8	n=10
out of conference + vs the FBS Independents	5-6	45%from 42%	-0.5	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 45%	-2.8	n=6
vs an FBS opponent + vs the FBS Independents	5-6	45%from 44%	-0.5	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 45%	-2.8	n=6
vs a P5 opponent + vs the FBS Independents	5-6	45%from 45%	-0.5	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 45%	-2.8	n=6
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	55-68	45%from 44%	-0.5	n=123
+ vs the FBS Independents	5-6	45%from 45%	-0.5	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 45%	-2.8	n=6
+ in October	14-21	40%from 45%	-0.9	n=35
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-12	33%from 40%	-0.3	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	18-34	35%from 45%	-1.9	n=52
vs Notre Dame + out of conference	4-5	44%from 44%	-1.1	n=9
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-5	44%from 44%	-1.1	n=9
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-5	44%from 44%	-1.1	n=9
+ vs the FBS Independents	4-5	44%from 44%	-1.1	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 44%	-2.9	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-5	44%from 44%	-1.1	n=9
+ vs the FBS Independents	4-5	44%from 44%	-1.1	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 44%	-2.9	n=5
+ vs the FBS Independents	4-5	44%from 44%	-1.1	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 44%	-2.9	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 44%	-2.9	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Notre Dame — the basics

148 graded games since 2014

at home	41-32	56%	+3.0	n=73
vs Stanford	5-4	56%	+1.1	n=9
out of conference	77-55	58%	+3.3	n=132
vs an FBS opponent	85-62	58%	+3.5	n=147
vs a P5 opponent	70-50	58%	+3.9	n=120
vs the ACC	39-27	59%	+3.8	n=66
in October	22-14	61%	+3.9	n=36
at this venue	41-32	56%	+3.0	n=73
in the last 5 seasons	43-23	65%	+6.4	n=66

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Notre Dame — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 148 graded games: +3.5 pts vs their number per game	n=148

Notre Dame — combinations

164 lean Notre Dame · 0 lean against

Read this first. 175 combinations shown. The best one here is 92%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs the ACC + in the last 5 seasons	19-7	73%from 59%	+8.9	n=26
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	37-14	73%from 58%	+8.8	n=51
vs the ACC + in October	14-7	67%from 59%	+4.9	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-1	88%from 67%	+8.3	n=8
+ at this venue	6-4	60%from 67%	+3.8	n=10
in October + in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 61%	+5.6	n=17
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	42-23	65%from 58%	+6.4	n=65
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	38-22	63%from 58%	+6.0	n=60
vs a P5 opponent + in October	19-11	63%from 58%	+4.0	n=30
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-3	77%from 63%	+6.5	n=13
+ at this venue	10-7	59%from 63%	+4.8	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 59%	+9.3	n=8
out of conference + in October	18-11	62%from 58%	+3.8	n=29
+ at this venue	11-8	58%from 62%	+4.5	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 58%	+5.5	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-6	57%from 62%	+5.7	n=14
vs an FBS opponent + in October	22-14	61%from 58%	+3.9	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 61%	+5.6	n=17
+ at this venue	12-10	55%from 61%	+3.5	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 55%	+5.6	n=11
out of conference + vs the ACC	31-20	61%from 58%	+3.5	n=51
+ in October	11-4	73%from 61%	+5.2	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-1	83%from 73%	+9.3	n=6
+ at this venue	5-2	71%from 73%	+6.6	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-6	71%from 61%	+8.2	n=21
+ at this venue	15-9	63%from 61%	+5.2	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-1	90%from 63%	+16.8	n=10

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.