Wake Forest at NC State—

ST Model NC State -6.2

Trends · 2026 week 6

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Wake Forest — the basics

142 graded games since 2014

on the road	32-30	52%	+1.6	n=62
vs NC State	5-7	42%	-0.9	n=12
in a conference game	50-45	53%	+1.1	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	70-63	53%	+1.1	n=133
vs a P5 opponent	64-53	55%	+1.2	n=117
vs the ACC	51-45	53%	+1.1	n=96
in October	26-16	62%	+2.6	n=42
at this venue	2-4	33%	-1.8	n=6
in the last 5 seasons	31-30	51%	+0.3	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Wake Forest — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +7.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 142 graded games: +1.1 pts vs their number per game	n=142

Wake Forest — combinations

60 lean Wake Forest · 106 lean against

Read this first. 177 combinations shown. The best one here is 70%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 70% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in October + in the last 5 seasons	12-6	67%from 62%	+4.4	n=18
vs an FBS opponent + in October	25-16	61%from 53%	+2.2	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-6	67%from 61%	+4.4	n=18
vs a P5 opponent + in October	25-16	61%from 55%	+2.2	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-6	67%from 61%	+4.4	n=18
on the road + in October	12-8	60%from 52%	+2.7	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 60%	+4.0	n=10
in a conference game + in October	21-15	58%from 53%	+1.4	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-6	57%from 58%	+1.8	n=14
vs the ACC + in October	21-15	58%from 53%	+1.4	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-6	57%from 58%	+1.8	n=14
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	64-53	55%from 53%	+1.2	n=117
+ in October	25-16	61%from 55%	+2.2	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-6	67%from 61%	+4.4	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	28-24	54%from 55%	+0.9	n=52
+ vs the ACC	51-45	53%from 55%	+1.1	n=96
+ in October	21-15	58%from 53%	+1.4	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-21	48%from 53%	-0.3	n=40
+ at this venue	2-4	33%from 53%	-1.8	n=6
+ at this venue	2-4	33%from 55%	-1.8	n=6
on the road + vs a P5 opponent	31-26	54%from 52%	+2.2	n=57
+ in October	12-8	60%from 54%	+2.7	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 60%	+4.0	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-12	52%from 54%	+0.9	n=25
+ vs the ACC	23-25	48%from 54%	+1.6	n=48
+ in October	9-8	53%from 48%	+1.1	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 48%	-0.3	n=20
+ at this venue	2-4	33%from 48%	-1.8	n=6
+ at this venue	2-4	33%from 54%	-1.8	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

NC State — the basics

147 graded games since 2014

at home	40-36	53%	+0.5	n=76
vs Wake Forest	7-5	58%	+0.9	n=12
in a conference game	47-48	49%	+0.3	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	66-72	48%	-0.1	n=138
vs a P5 opponent	54-61	47%	-0.9	n=115
vs the ACC	48-48	50%	+0.3	n=96
in October	17-24	41%	-2.9	n=41
at this venue	40-36	53%	+0.5	n=76
in the last 5 seasons	28-34	45%	+0.1	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

NC State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 147 graded games: -0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=147
NC State has covered 3 straight	n=3

NC State — combinations

129 lean NC State · 74 lean against

Read this first. 215 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + vs Wake Forest	4-2	67%from 53%	+1.8	n=6
+ in a conference game	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.8	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.8	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.8	n=6
+ vs the ACC	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.8	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.8	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.8	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.8	n=6
+ vs the ACC	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.8	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.8	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.8	n=6
+ vs the ACC	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.8	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.8	n=6
+ vs the ACC	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.8	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.8	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+1.8	n=6
vs Wake Forest + at this venue	4-2	67%from 58%	+1.8	n=6
vs Wake Forest + in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 58%	+4.6	n=5
vs Wake Forest + in a conference game	7-5	58%from 58%	+0.9	n=12
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 58%	+1.8	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 58%	+4.6	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-5	58%from 58%	+0.9	n=12
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 58%	+1.8	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 58%	+4.6	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-5	58%from 58%	+0.9	n=12
+ vs the ACC	7-5	58%from 58%	+0.9	n=12
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-5	58%from 58%	+0.9	n=12
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 58%	+1.8	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 58%	+4.6	n=5
+ vs the ACC	7-5	58%from 58%	+0.9	n=12
+ vs the ACC	7-5	58%from 58%	+0.9	n=12
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 58%	+1.8	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 58%	+4.6	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.