How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Louisville — the basics
148 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 27-30 | 47% | -1.4 | n=57 |
| vs Syracuse | 7-2 | 78% | +11.3 | n=9 |
| in a conference game | 41-55 | 43% | -0.4 | n=96 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 63-77 | 45% | -0.4 | n=140 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 52-70 | 43% | -1.1 | n=122 |
| vs the ACC | 40-55 | 42% | -0.5 | n=95 |
| in October | 17-28 | 38% | -1.6 | n=45 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 31-34 | 48% | +2.1 | n=65 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Louisville — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -1.8 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 148 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game | n=148 |
Louisville — combinations
14 lean Louisville · 82 lean against
Read this first. 113 combinations shown. The best one here is 78%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 59% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Syracuse + in a conference game | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +11.3 | n=9 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +11.3 | n=9 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +11.3 | n=9 |
| + vs the ACC | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +11.3 | n=9 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +11.3 | n=9 |
| + vs the ACC | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +11.3 | n=9 |
| + vs the ACC | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +11.3 | n=9 |
| vs Syracuse + vs an FBS opponent | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +11.3 | n=9 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +11.3 | n=9 |
| + vs the ACC | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +11.3 | n=9 |
| + vs the ACC | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +11.3 | n=9 |
| vs Syracuse + vs a P5 opponent | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +11.3 | n=9 |
| + vs the ACC | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +11.3 | n=9 |
| vs Syracuse + vs the ACC | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +11.3 | n=9 |
| on the road + in the last 5 seasons | 11-11 | 50%from 47% | -0.8 | n=22 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 29-32 | 48%from 45% | +1.8 | n=61 |
| in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons | 19-21 | 48%from 43% | +0.9 | n=40 |
| vs the ACC + in the last 5 seasons | 19-21 | 48%from 42% | +0.9 | n=40 |
| on the road + vs an FBS opponent | 27-30 | 47%from 47% | -1.4 | n=57 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 11-11 | 50%from 47% | -0.8 | n=22 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 24-30 | 44%from 47% | -1.9 | n=54 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-11 | 48%from 44% | -1.4 | n=21 |
| + vs the ACC | 19-27 | 41%from 44% | -3.0 | n=46 |
| + in October | 9-13 | 41%from 44% | -2.6 | n=22 |
| + vs the ACC | 19-27 | 41%from 47% | -3.0 | n=46 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 9-9 | 50%from 41% | -2.3 | n=18 |
| + in October | 8-13 | 38%from 41% | -3.3 | n=21 |
| + in October | 9-13 | 41%from 47% | -2.6 | n=22 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-5 | 38%from 41% | -2.2 | n=8 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.