Boston College at Duke—

ST Model Duke -12.1

Trends · 2026 week 9

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Boston College — the basics

143 graded games since 2014

on the road	35-27	56%	+1.4	n=62
in a conference game	51-44	54%	+0.7	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	69-65	51%	-0.1	n=134
vs a P5 opponent	62-57	52%	-0.2	n=119
vs the ACC	51-43	54%	+0.7	n=94
in October	25-20	56%	+1.5	n=45
in the last 5 seasons	29-32	48%	-1.1	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Boston College — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -3.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 143 graded games: +0.4 pts vs their number per game	n=143
Boston College has covered 2 straight	n=2

Boston College — combinations

50 lean Boston College · 41 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 57%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 62% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in a conference game + in October	23-17	57%from 54%	+2.2	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-9	36%from 57%	-5.0	n=14
vs the ACC + in October	23-17	57%from 54%	+2.2	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-9	36%from 57%	-5.0	n=14
on the road + in a conference game	28-21	57%from 56%	+2.9	n=49
+ vs an FBS opponent	28-21	57%from 57%	+2.9	n=49
+ vs a P5 opponent	28-21	57%from 57%	+2.9	n=49
+ vs the ACC	28-21	57%from 57%	+2.9	n=49
+ in October	12-10	55%from 57%	+2.7	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 57%	-0.8	n=20
+ vs a P5 opponent	28-21	57%from 57%	+2.9	n=49
+ vs the ACC	28-21	57%from 57%	+2.9	n=49
+ in October	12-10	55%from 57%	+2.7	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 57%	-0.8	n=20
+ vs the ACC	28-21	57%from 57%	+2.9	n=49
+ in October	12-10	55%from 57%	+2.7	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 57%	-0.8	n=20
+ in October	12-10	55%from 57%	+2.7	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-6	33%from 55%	-4.6	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 57%	-0.8	n=20
on the road + vs the ACC	28-21	57%from 56%	+2.9	n=49
+ in October	12-10	55%from 57%	+2.7	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-6	33%from 55%	-4.6	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 57%	-0.8	n=20
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	35-27	56%from 56%	+1.4	n=62
+ vs the ACC	28-21	57%from 56%	+2.9	n=49
+ in October	12-10	55%from 57%	+2.7	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 57%	-0.8	n=20
+ vs a P5 opponent	33-26	56%from 56%	+1.1	n=59
+ vs the ACC	28-21	57%from 56%	+2.9	n=49
+ in October	13-11	54%from 56%	+1.9	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-14	46%from 56%	-2.5	n=26
+ in October	13-11	54%from 56%	+1.9	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-7	36%from 54%	-4.9	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-14	48%from 56%	-2.1	n=27

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Duke — the basics

146 graded games since 2014

at home	39-34	53%	-2.0	n=73
in a conference game	44-49	47%	-2.8	n=93
vs an FBS opponent	72-63	53%	-0.1	n=135
vs a P5 opponent	63-60	51%	-1.4	n=123
vs the ACC	44-49	47%	-2.8	n=93
in October	19-18	51%	-0.3	n=37
at this venue	39-34	53%	-2.0	n=73
in the last 5 seasons	35-28	56%	+1.4	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Duke — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.4 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 146 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=146
Duke has covered 3 straight	n=3

Duke — combinations

102 lean Duke · 50 lean against

Read this first. 162 combinations shown. The best one here is 86%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 65% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + in the last 5 seasons	19-13	59%from 53%	+1.6	n=32
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	19-13	59%from 53%	+1.6	n=32
vs the ACC + in the last 5 seasons	23-16	59%from 47%	+1.6	n=39
at home + in October	10-7	59%from 53%	-0.3	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-1	86%from 59%	+6.1	n=7
+ at this venue	10-7	59%from 59%	-0.3	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-1	86%from 59%	+6.1	n=7
in October + at this venue	10-7	59%from 51%	-0.3	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-1	86%from 59%	+6.1	n=7
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	34-24	59%from 53%	+1.8	n=58
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	22-16	58%from 47%	+1.3	n=38
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	30-22	58%from 51%	+1.1	n=52
at home + at this venue	39-34	53%from 53%	-2.0	n=73
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-13	59%from 53%	+1.6	n=32
in October + in the last 5 seasons	8-7	53%from 51%	-0.1	n=15
at home + vs an FBS opponent	33-29	53%from 53%	-2.8	n=62
+ in the last 5 seasons	18-9	67%from 53%	+2.4	n=27
+ in October	10-7	59%from 53%	-0.3	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-1	86%from 59%	+6.1	n=7
+ at this venue	10-7	59%from 59%	-0.3	n=17
+ at this venue	33-29	53%from 53%	-2.8	n=62
+ in the last 5 seasons	18-9	67%from 53%	+2.4	n=27
+ vs a P5 opponent	30-29	51%from 53%	-3.9	n=59
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-9	65%from 51%	+1.7	n=26
+ in October	9-7	56%from 51%	-1.8	n=16
+ at this venue	30-29	51%from 51%	-3.9	n=59
+ vs the ACC	22-24	48%from 51%	-5.0	n=46
+ vs the ACC	22-24	48%from 53%	-5.0	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-6	70%from 48%	+3.0	n=20
+ in October	8-7	53%from 48%	-1.9	n=15
+ at this venue	22-24	48%from 48%	-5.0	n=46

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.