Boston College at Notre Dame—

ST Model Notre Dame -30

Trends · 2026 week 11

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Boston College — the basics

143 graded games since 2014

on the road	35-27	56%	+1.4	n=62
vs Notre Dame	2-4	33%	-3.9	n=6
out of conference	23-25	48%	-0.1	n=48
vs an FBS opponent	69-65	51%	-0.1	n=134
vs a P5 opponent	62-57	52%	-0.2	n=119
vs the FBS Independents	5-8	38%	-4.8	n=13
in November	25-19	57%	+1.2	n=44
in the last 5 seasons	29-32	48%	-1.1	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Boston College — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -3.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 143 graded games: +0.4 pts vs their number per game	n=143
Boston College has covered 2 straight	n=2

Boston College — combinations

24 lean Boston College · 60 lean against

Read this first. 95 combinations shown. The best one here is 71%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
out of conference + in November	4-2	67%from 48%	+2.9	n=6
in November + in the last 5 seasons	13-7	65%from 57%	+1.4	n=20
on the road + in November	12-7	63%from 56%	+5.0	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 63%	+4.7	n=7
vs an FBS opponent + in November	25-19	57%from 51%	+1.2	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-7	65%from 57%	+1.4	n=20
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	35-27	56%from 56%	+1.4	n=62
+ in November	12-7	63%from 56%	+5.0	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 63%	+4.7	n=7
+ vs a P5 opponent	33-26	56%from 56%	+1.1	n=59
+ in November	12-7	63%from 56%	+5.0	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-14	46%from 56%	-2.5	n=26
+ vs the FBS Independents	2-4	33%from 56%	-11.5	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-14	48%from 56%	-2.1	n=27
+ vs the FBS Independents	2-4	33%from 56%	-11.5	n=6
on the road + vs a P5 opponent	33-26	56%from 56%	+1.1	n=59
+ in November	12-7	63%from 56%	+5.0	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 63%	+4.7	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-14	46%from 56%	-2.5	n=26
+ vs the FBS Independents	2-4	33%from 56%	-11.5	n=6
vs a P5 opponent + in November	23-19	55%from 52%	+0.7	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-7	65%from 55%	+1.4	n=20
on the road + out of conference	7-6	54%from 56%	-4.3	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 54%	-5.6	n=7
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-6	54%from 54%	-4.3	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 54%	-5.6	n=7
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-5	50%from 54%	-7.6	n=10
+ vs the FBS Independents	2-4	33%from 54%	-11.5	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-5	50%from 54%	-7.6	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 50%	-8.2	n=6
+ vs the FBS Independents	2-4	33%from 50%	-11.5	n=6
+ vs the FBS Independents	2-4	33%from 54%	-11.5	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Notre Dame — the basics

148 graded games since 2014

at home	41-32	56%	+3.0	n=73
vs Boston College	4-2	67%	+3.9	n=6
out of conference	77-55	58%	+3.3	n=132
vs an FBS opponent	85-62	58%	+3.5	n=147
vs a P5 opponent	70-50	58%	+3.9	n=120
vs the ACC	39-27	59%	+3.8	n=66
in November	26-23	53%	+2.4	n=49
at this venue	41-32	56%	+3.0	n=73
in the last 5 seasons	43-23	65%	+6.4	n=66

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Notre Dame — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 148 graded games: +3.5 pts vs their number per game	n=148

Notre Dame — combinations

166 lean Notre Dame · 4 lean against

Read this first. 184 combinations shown. The best one here is 92%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs the ACC + in the last 5 seasons	19-7	73%from 59%	+8.9	n=26
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	37-14	73%from 58%	+8.8	n=51
in November + in the last 5 seasons	14-6	70%from 53%	+9.2	n=20
vs Boston College + vs an FBS opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.9	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.9	n=6
+ vs the ACC	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.9	n=6
+ in November	3-2	60%from 67%	+1.7	n=5
+ vs the ACC	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.9	n=6
+ in November	3-2	60%from 67%	+1.7	n=5
+ in November	3-2	60%from 67%	+1.7	n=5
vs Boston College + vs a P5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.9	n=6
+ vs the ACC	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.9	n=6
+ in November	3-2	60%from 67%	+1.7	n=5
+ in November	3-2	60%from 67%	+1.7	n=5
vs Boston College + vs the ACC	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.9	n=6
+ in November	3-2	60%from 67%	+1.7	n=5
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	42-23	65%from 58%	+6.4	n=65
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	38-22	63%from 58%	+6.0	n=60
out of conference + vs the ACC	31-20	61%from 58%	+3.5	n=51
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-6	71%from 61%	+8.2	n=21
+ at this venue	15-9	63%from 61%	+5.2	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-1	90%from 63%	+16.8	n=10
+ in November	11-11	50%from 61%	+3.2	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 50%	+9.1	n=10
+ at this venue	7-6	54%from 50%	+7.0	n=13

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.