California at Virginia—

ST Model Virginia -12.2

Trends · 2026 week 11

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

California — the basics

139 graded games since 2014

on the road	34-29	54%	+0.4	n=63
in a conference game	49-51	49%	-0.7	n=100
vs an FBS opponent	68-63	52%	+0.4	n=131
vs a P5 opponent	62-55	53%	+0.6	n=117
vs the ACC	7-10	41%	-2.3	n=17
in November	23-20	53%	-0.5	n=43
in the last 5 seasons	31-32	49%	-0.8	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

California — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -4.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 139 graded games: +0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=139

California — combinations

36 lean California · 39 lean against

Read this first. 93 combinations shown. The best one here is 56%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 62% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + vs the ACC	5-4	56%from 54%	+0.4	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 56%	-1.7	n=8
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	28-23	55%from 53%	+0.3	n=51
in a conference game + in November	23-19	55%from 49%	-0.3	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 55%	-0.9	n=19
on the road + vs a P5 opponent	32-27	54%from 54%	+0.8	n=59
+ vs the ACC	5-4	56%from 54%	+0.4	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 56%	-1.7	n=8
+ in November	13-11	54%from 54%	-0.7	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 54%	-0.6	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-12	54%from 54%	+0.1	n=26
on the road + in November	13-11	54%from 54%	-0.7	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 54%	-0.6	n=12
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	34-29	54%from 54%	+0.4	n=63
+ vs the ACC	5-4	56%from 54%	+0.4	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 56%	-1.7	n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent	32-27	54%from 54%	+0.8	n=59
+ vs the ACC	5-4	56%from 54%	+0.4	n=9
+ in November	13-11	54%from 54%	-0.7	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-12	54%from 54%	+0.1	n=26
+ in November	13-11	54%from 54%	-0.7	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 54%	-0.6	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-14	52%from 54%	-0.7	n=29
vs an FBS opponent + in November	23-20	53%from 52%	-0.5	n=43
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 53%	-0.9	n=19

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Virginia — the basics

140 graded games since 2014

at home	45-31	59%	-0.7	n=76
in a conference game	55-39	59%	-0.2	n=94
vs an FBS opponent	74-55	57%	-0.1	n=129
vs a P5 opponent	65-51	56%	-0.3	n=116
vs the ACC	55-40	58%	-0.1	n=95
in November	24-18	57%	-1.6	n=42
at this venue	44-31	59%	-0.8	n=75
in the last 5 seasons	33-24	58%	-0.7	n=57

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Virginia — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +3.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 140 graded games: -0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=140

Virginia — combinations

111 lean Virginia · 26 lean against

Read this first. 162 combinations shown. The best one here is 65%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 69% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	24-14	63%from 59%	-0.9	n=38
vs the ACC + in the last 5 seasons	24-15	62%from 58%	-0.8	n=39
at home + vs the ACC	29-19	60%from 59%	-0.6	n=48
+ at this venue	29-19	60%from 60%	-0.6	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 60%	-4.9	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 60%	-4.9	n=20
+ in November	10-10	50%from 60%	-3.9	n=20
+ at this venue	10-10	50%from 50%	-3.9	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-6	33%from 50%	-12.2	n=9
vs the ACC + at this venue	29-19	60%from 58%	-0.6	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 60%	-4.9	n=20
at home + in a conference game	29-20	59%from 59%	-0.9	n=49
+ vs the ACC	29-19	60%from 59%	-0.6	n=48
+ at this venue	29-19	60%from 60%	-0.6	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 60%	-4.9	n=20
+ in November	10-10	50%from 60%	-3.9	n=20
+ vs an FBS opponent	29-20	59%from 59%	-0.9	n=49
+ vs the ACC	29-19	60%from 59%	-0.6	n=48
+ vs a P5 opponent	29-20	59%from 59%	-0.9	n=49
+ at this venue	29-20	59%from 59%	-0.9	n=49
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-10	52%from 59%	-5.5	n=21
+ in November	10-11	48%from 59%	-4.5	n=21
+ vs a P5 opponent	29-20	59%from 59%	-0.9	n=49
+ vs the ACC	29-19	60%from 59%	-0.6	n=48
+ at this venue	29-20	59%from 59%	-0.9	n=49
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-10	52%from 59%	-5.5	n=21
+ in November	10-11	48%from 59%	-4.5	n=21
+ at this venue	29-20	59%from 59%	-0.9	n=49
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-10	52%from 59%	-5.5	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-10	52%from 59%	-5.5	n=21
+ in November	10-11	48%from 59%	-4.5	n=21
+ at this venue	10-11	48%from 48%	-4.5	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-7	30%from 48%	-12.6	n=10

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.