Duke at Miami—

ST Model Miami -17.2

Trends · 2026 week 11

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Duke — the basics

146 graded games since 2014

on the road	31-32	49%	+1.4	n=63
vs Miami	3-7	30%	-2.2	n=10
in a conference game	44-49	47%	-2.8	n=93
vs an FBS opponent	72-63	53%	-0.1	n=135
vs a P5 opponent	63-60	51%	-1.4	n=123
vs the ACC	44-49	47%	-2.8	n=93
in November	20-26	43%	-5.3	n=46
at this venue	2-3	40%	+7.8	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	35-28	56%	+1.4	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Duke — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.4 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 146 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=146
Duke has covered 3 straight	n=3

Duke — combinations

24 lean Duke · 137 lean against

Read this first. 177 combinations shown. The best one here is 59%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 70% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs the ACC + in the last 5 seasons	23-16	59%from 47%	+1.6	n=39
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	34-24	59%from 53%	+1.8	n=58
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	22-16	58%from 47%	+1.3	n=38
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	30-22	58%from 51%	+1.1	n=52
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	63-60	51%from 53%	-1.4	n=123
+ in the last 5 seasons	30-22	58%from 51%	+1.1	n=52
+ vs the ACC	44-49	47%from 51%	-2.8	n=93
+ in the last 5 seasons	23-16	59%from 47%	+1.6	n=39
+ in November	20-23	47%from 47%	-4.6	n=43
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 47%	+7.8	n=5
+ in November	20-26	43%from 51%	-5.3	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-10	50%from 43%	-1.7	n=20
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 51%	+7.8	n=5
in November + in the last 5 seasons	10-10	50%from 43%	-1.7	n=20
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	31-32	49%from 49%	+1.4	n=63
+ vs a P5 opponent	28-29	49%from 49%	+1.0	n=57
+ vs the ACC	21-25	46%from 49%	-0.9	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-12	45%from 49%	+0.4	n=22
+ in November	10-13	43%from 49%	-2.8	n=23
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 49%	+7.8	n=5
+ vs the ACC	21-25	46%from 49%	-0.9	n=46
+ in November	10-11	48%from 46%	-2.1	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-10	44%from 46%	-0.6	n=18
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 46%	+7.8	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-14	44%from 49%	+0.2	n=25
+ in November	10-13	43%from 49%	-2.8	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 43%	-0.7	n=10
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 49%	+7.8	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Miami — the basics

151 graded games since 2014

at home	39-40	49%	-1.8	n=79
vs Duke	7-3	70%	+2.2	n=10
in a conference game	42-53	44%	-2.5	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	66-74	47%	-1.4	n=140
vs a P5 opponent	53-66	45%	-1.8	n=119
vs the ACC	42-53	44%	-2.5	n=95
in November	21-24	47%	-0.6	n=45
at this venue	40-40	50%	-1.7	n=80
in the last 5 seasons	32-34	48%	-0.7	n=66

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Miami — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 151 graded games: -1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=151
Miami has covered 5 straight	n=5

Miami — combinations

79 lean Miami · 127 lean against

Read this first. 215 combinations shown. The best one here is 70%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs Duke + in a conference game	7-3	70%from 70%	+2.2	n=10
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-3	70%from 70%	+2.2	n=10
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-3	70%from 70%	+2.2	n=10
+ vs the ACC	7-3	70%from 70%	+2.2	n=10
+ in November	3-2	60%from 70%	-2.9	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 70%	-7.8	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-3	70%from 70%	+2.2	n=10
+ vs the ACC	7-3	70%from 70%	+2.2	n=10
+ in November	3-2	60%from 70%	-2.9	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 70%	-7.8	n=5
+ vs the ACC	7-3	70%from 70%	+2.2	n=10
+ in November	3-2	60%from 70%	-2.9	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 70%	-7.8	n=5
+ in November	3-2	60%from 70%	-2.9	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 70%	-7.8	n=5
vs Duke + vs an FBS opponent	7-3	70%from 70%	+2.2	n=10
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-3	70%from 70%	+2.2	n=10
+ vs the ACC	7-3	70%from 70%	+2.2	n=10
+ in November	3-2	60%from 70%	-2.9	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 70%	-7.8	n=5
+ vs the ACC	7-3	70%from 70%	+2.2	n=10
+ in November	3-2	60%from 70%	-2.9	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 70%	-7.8	n=5
+ in November	3-2	60%from 70%	-2.9	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 70%	-7.8	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.