Virginia Tech at Miami—

ST Model Miami -22.2

Trends · 2026 week 12

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Virginia Tech — the basics

150 graded games since 2014

on the road	27-36	43%	+0.3	n=63
vs Miami	5-6	45%	-1.4	n=11
in a conference game	47-51	48%	+1.4	n=98
vs an FBS opponent	63-79	44%	-0.3	n=142
vs a P5 opponent	54-67	45%	+0.2	n=121
vs the ACC	47-50	48%	+1.5	n=97
in November	17-27	39%	-1.2	n=44
at this venue	2-3	40%	+2.2	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	26-36	42%	-1.3	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Virginia Tech — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -6.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 150 graded games: -0.7 pts vs their number per game	n=150

Virginia Tech — combinations

11 lean Virginia Tech · 157 lean against

Read this first. 177 combinations shown. The best one here is 54%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs the ACC + in the last 5 seasons	21-18	54%from 48%	+3.1	n=39
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	21-19	53%from 48%	+3.0	n=40
in a conference game + vs the ACC	47-50	48%from 48%	+1.5	n=97
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-18	54%from 48%	+3.1	n=39
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 48%	+2.2	n=5
+ in November	14-26	35%from 48%	-1.6	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-12	29%from 35%	-0.6	n=17
vs an FBS opponent + vs the ACC	47-50	48%from 44%	+1.5	n=97
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-18	54%from 48%	+3.1	n=39
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 48%	+2.2	n=5
+ in November	14-26	35%from 48%	-1.6	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-12	29%from 35%	-0.6	n=17
vs a P5 opponent + vs the ACC	47-50	48%from 45%	+1.5	n=97
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-18	54%from 48%	+3.1	n=39
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 48%	+2.2	n=5
+ in November	14-26	35%from 48%	-1.6	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-12	29%from 35%	-0.6	n=17
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	47-51	48%from 48%	+1.4	n=98
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-19	53%from 48%	+3.0	n=40
+ vs the ACC	47-50	48%from 48%	+1.5	n=97
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-18	54%from 48%	+3.1	n=39
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 48%	+2.2	n=5
+ in November	14-26	35%from 48%	-1.6	n=40
+ vs a P5 opponent	47-51	48%from 48%	+1.4	n=98
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-19	53%from 48%	+3.0	n=40
+ vs the ACC	47-50	48%from 48%	+1.5	n=97
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 48%	+2.2	n=5
+ in November	14-26	35%from 48%	-1.6	n=40
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 48%	+2.2	n=5
+ in November	14-26	35%from 48%	-1.6	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-12	29%from 35%	-0.6	n=17

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Miami — the basics

151 graded games since 2014

at home	39-40	49%	-1.8	n=79
vs Virginia Tech	6-5	55%	+1.4	n=11
in a conference game	42-53	44%	-2.5	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	66-74	47%	-1.4	n=140
vs a P5 opponent	53-66	45%	-1.8	n=119
vs the ACC	42-53	44%	-2.5	n=95
in November	21-24	47%	-0.6	n=45
at this venue	40-40	50%	-1.7	n=80
in the last 5 seasons	32-34	48%	-0.7	n=66

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Miami — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 151 graded games: -1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=151
Miami has covered 5 straight	n=5

Miami — combinations

79 lean Miami · 127 lean against

Read this first. 215 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 64% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs Virginia Tech + in November	4-1	80%from 55%	+8.0	n=5
at home + vs Virginia Tech	3-2	60%from 49%	-2.2	n=5
+ in a conference game	3-2	60%from 60%	-2.2	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-2.2	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-2.2	n=5
+ vs the ACC	3-2	60%from 60%	-2.2	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	-2.2	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-2.2	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-2.2	n=5
+ vs the ACC	3-2	60%from 60%	-2.2	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	-2.2	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-2.2	n=5
+ vs the ACC	3-2	60%from 60%	-2.2	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	-2.2	n=5
+ vs the ACC	3-2	60%from 60%	-2.2	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	-2.2	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	-2.2	n=5
vs Virginia Tech + at this venue	3-2	60%from 55%	-2.2	n=5
at home + in November	12-10	55%from 49%	+2.3	n=22
+ at this venue	12-10	55%from 55%	+2.3	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 55%	-4.9	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 55%	-4.9	n=9
in November + at this venue	12-10	55%from 47%	+2.3	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 55%	-4.9	n=9
vs Virginia Tech + in a conference game	6-5	55%from 55%	+1.4	n=11
+ in November	4-1	80%from 55%	+8.0	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 55%	-2.2	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-5	55%from 55%	+1.4	n=11
+ in November	4-1	80%from 55%	+8.0	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 55%	-2.2	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	6-5	55%from 55%	+1.4	n=11
+ vs the ACC	6-5	55%from 55%	+1.4	n=11
+ vs a P5 opponent	6-5	55%from 55%	+1.4	n=11
+ in November	4-1	80%from 55%	+8.0	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 55%	-2.2	n=5
+ vs the ACC	6-5	55%from 55%	+1.4	n=11
+ vs the ACC	6-5	55%from 55%	+1.4	n=11
+ in November	4-1	80%from 55%	+8.0	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 55%	-2.2	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.