How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
SMU — the basics
145 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 29-40 | 42% | -1.9 | n=69 |
| out of conference | 23-27 | 46% | -3.2 | n=50 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 65-73 | 47% | -0.8 | n=138 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 19-21 | 48% | +1.2 | n=40 |
| in November | 20-27 | 43% | -1.2 | n=47 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 32-33 | 49% | +1.8 | n=65 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
SMU — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: +3.1 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 145 graded games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game | n=145 |
SMU — combinations
10 lean SMU · 26 lean against
Read this first. 42 combinations shown. The best one here is 75%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs a P5 opponent + in November | 6-2 | 75%from 48% | +11.2 | n=8 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-2 | 75%from 75% | +11.2 | n=8 |
| on the road + vs a P5 opponent | 11-8 | 58%from 42% | +3.6 | n=19 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-8 | 43%from 58% | +1.6 | n=14 |
| in November + in the last 5 seasons | 11-9 | 55%from 43% | +3.1 | n=20 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 30-31 | 49%from 47% | +1.9 | n=61 |
| vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent | 19-21 | 48%from 47% | +1.2 | n=40 |
| + in November | 6-2 | 75%from 48% | +11.2 | n=8 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-2 | 75%from 75% | +11.2 | n=8 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 14-16 | 47%from 48% | +2.6 | n=30 |
| vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 14-16 | 47%from 48% | +2.6 | n=30 |
| on the road + out of conference | 10-12 | 45%from 42% | -3.1 | n=22 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 6-5 | 55%from 45% | +2.0 | n=11 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 1-5 | 17%from 55% | -3.8 | n=6 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 10-12 | 45%from 45% | -3.1 | n=22 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 6-5 | 55%from 45% | +2.0 | n=11 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 2-8 | 20%from 45% | -3.6 | n=10 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 2-8 | 20%from 45% | -3.6 | n=10 |
| out of conference + vs an FBS opponent | 19-24 | 44%from 46% | -3.9 | n=43 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 8-15 | 35%from 44% | -3.5 | n=23 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-10 | 23%from 35% | -3.8 | n=13 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-13 | 32%from 44% | -3.1 | n=19 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in November | 20-27 | 43%from 47% | -1.2 | n=47 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 11-9 | 55%from 43% | +3.1 | n=20 |
| on the road + vs an FBS opponent | 29-40 | 42%from 42% | -1.9 | n=69 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 11-8 | 58%from 42% | +3.6 | n=19 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-8 | 43%from 58% | +1.6 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 12-19 | 39%from 42% | -1.1 | n=31 |
| + in November | 6-17 | 26%from 42% | -6.8 | n=23 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-6 | 33%from 26% | -6.1 | n=9 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.