Stanford at California—

ST Model California -6.3

Trends · 2026 week 12

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Stanford — the basics

138 graded games since 2014

on the road	26-36	42%	-1.2	n=62
vs California	6-6	50%	+0.9	n=12
in a conference game	44-56	44%	-0.5	n=100
vs an FBS opponent	59-75	44%	-0.4	n=134
vs a P5 opponent	55-68	45%	-0.5	n=123
vs the ACC	7-10	41%	+2.4	n=17
in November	16-29	36%	-2.4	n=45
at this venue	4-2	67%	+5.6	n=6
in the last 5 seasons	20-39	34%	-1.9	n=59

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Stanford — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 138 graded games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=138
Stanford has covered 3 straight	n=3

Stanford — combinations

63 lean Stanford · 93 lean against

Read this first. 172 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + vs California	4-2	67%from 42%	+5.6	n=6
+ in a conference game	4-2	67%from 67%	+5.6	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+5.6	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+5.6	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+5.6	n=6
+ in November	3-2	60%from 67%	+5.3	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+5.6	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+5.6	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+5.6	n=6
+ in November	3-2	60%from 67%	+5.3	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-2	67%from 67%	+5.6	n=6
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+5.6	n=6
+ in November	3-2	60%from 67%	+5.3	n=5
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 67%	+5.6	n=6
+ in November	3-2	60%from 67%	+5.3	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+5.3	n=5
on the road + at this venue	4-2	67%from 42%	+5.6	n=6
vs California + at this venue	4-2	67%from 50%	+5.6	n=6
in a conference game + at this venue	4-2	67%from 44%	+5.6	n=6
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	4-2	67%from 44%	+5.6	n=6
vs a P5 opponent + at this venue	4-2	67%from 45%	+5.6	n=6
vs the ACC + in November	4-2	67%from 41%	+6.9	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 67%	+6.9	n=6
in November + at this venue	3-2	60%from 36%	+5.3	n=5
vs California + in a conference game	6-6	50%from 50%	+0.9	n=12
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 50%	+5.6	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-6	50%from 50%	+0.9	n=12
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 50%	+5.6	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	6-6	50%from 50%	+0.9	n=12
+ in November	5-6	45%from 50%	+0.4	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 50%	+0.5	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	6-6	50%from 50%	+0.9	n=12
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 50%	+5.6	n=6
+ in November	5-6	45%from 50%	+0.4	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 50%	+0.5	n=5
+ in November	5-6	45%from 50%	+0.4	n=11
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 45%	+5.3	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 45%	+0.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 50%	+0.5	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

California — the basics

139 graded games since 2014

at home	34-36	49%	+0.1	n=70
vs Stanford	6-6	50%	-0.9	n=12
in a conference game	49-51	49%	-0.7	n=100
vs an FBS opponent	68-63	52%	+0.4	n=131
vs a P5 opponent	62-55	53%	+0.6	n=117
vs the ACC	7-10	41%	-2.3	n=17
in November	23-20	53%	-0.5	n=43
at this venue	34-35	49%	+0.1	n=69
in the last 5 seasons	31-32	49%	-0.8	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

California — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -4.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 139 graded games: +0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=139

California — combinations

87 lean California · 91 lean against

Read this first. 204 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs Stanford + in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 50%	-0.5	n=5
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	28-23	55%from 53%	+0.3	n=51
in a conference game + in November	23-19	55%from 49%	-0.3	n=42
+ at this venue	10-8	56%from 55%	+0.3	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 56%	-1.3	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 55%	-0.9	n=19
vs Stanford + in November	6-5	55%from 50%	-0.4	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 55%	-0.5	n=5
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 55%	-5.3	n=5
vs a P5 opponent + at this venue	29-25	54%from 53%	+0.6	n=54
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-10	58%from 54%	+1.2	n=24
vs an FBS opponent + in November	23-20	53%from 52%	-0.5	n=43
+ at this venue	10-9	53%from 53%	-0.3	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 53%	-1.3	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 53%	-0.9	n=19
vs a P5 opponent + in November	23-20	53%from 53%	-0.5	n=43
+ at this venue	10-9	53%from 53%	-0.3	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 53%	-1.3	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 53%	-0.9	n=19
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	62-55	53%from 52%	+0.6	n=117
+ in the last 5 seasons	28-23	55%from 53%	+0.3	n=51
+ at this venue	29-25	54%from 53%	+0.6	n=54
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-10	58%from 54%	+1.2	n=24
+ in November	23-20	53%from 53%	-0.5	n=43
+ at this venue	10-9	53%from 53%	-0.3	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 53%	-0.9	n=19
+ vs the ACC	7-10	41%from 53%	-2.3	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-10	38%from 41%	-3.5	n=16
+ in November	3-5	38%from 41%	-4.7	n=8
+ at this venue	2-6	25%from 41%	-5.4	n=8

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.