Duke at Wake Forest—

ST Model Duke -1.7

Trends · 2026 week 13

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Duke — the basics

146 graded games since 2014

on the road	31-32	49%	+1.4	n=63
vs Wake Forest	6-5	55%	-6.0	n=11
in a conference game	44-49	47%	-2.8	n=93
vs an FBS opponent	72-63	53%	-0.1	n=135
vs a P5 opponent	63-60	51%	-1.4	n=123
vs the ACC	44-49	47%	-2.8	n=93
in November	20-26	43%	-5.3	n=46
at this venue	3-2	60%	-0.8	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	35-28	56%	+1.4	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Duke — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.4 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 146 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=146
Duke has covered 3 straight	n=3

Duke — combinations

112 lean Duke · 60 lean against

Read this first. 188 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 70% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs Wake Forest + in November	6-3	67%from 55%	-2.9	n=9
on the road + vs Wake Forest	3-2	60%from 49%	-0.8	n=5
+ in a conference game	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.8	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.8	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.8	n=5
+ vs the ACC	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.8	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.8	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.8	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.8	n=5
+ vs the ACC	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.8	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.8	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.8	n=5
+ vs the ACC	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.8	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.8	n=5
+ vs the ACC	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.8	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.8	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.8	n=5
on the road + at this venue	3-2	60%from 49%	-0.8	n=5
vs Wake Forest + at this venue	3-2	60%from 55%	-0.8	n=5
vs Wake Forest + in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 55%	-0.5	n=5
in a conference game + at this venue	3-2	60%from 47%	-0.8	n=5
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	3-2	60%from 53%	-0.8	n=5
vs a P5 opponent + at this venue	3-2	60%from 51%	-0.8	n=5
vs the ACC + at this venue	3-2	60%from 47%	-0.8	n=5
vs the ACC + in the last 5 seasons	23-16	59%from 47%	+1.6	n=39

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Wake Forest — the basics

142 graded games since 2014

at home	38-34	53%	+0.3	n=72
vs Duke	5-6	45%	+6.0	n=11
in a conference game	50-45	53%	+1.1	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	70-63	53%	+1.1	n=133
vs a P5 opponent	64-53	55%	+1.2	n=117
vs the ACC	51-45	53%	+1.1	n=96
in November	23-23	50%	+0.7	n=46
at this venue	38-34	53%	+0.3	n=72
in the last 5 seasons	31-30	51%	+0.3	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Wake Forest — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +7.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 142 graded games: +1.1 pts vs their number per game	n=142

Wake Forest — combinations

101 lean Wake Forest · 110 lean against

Read this first. 226 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 68% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + vs the ACC	28-19	60%from 53%	+1.1	n=47
+ at this venue	28-19	60%from 60%	+1.1	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 60%	+0.8	n=19
+ in November	10-9	53%from 60%	-0.2	n=19
+ at this venue	10-9	53%from 53%	-0.2	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 53%	-2.1	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 60%	+0.8	n=19
vs the ACC + at this venue	28-19	60%from 53%	+1.1	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 60%	+0.8	n=19
at home + in a conference game	27-19	59%from 53%	+1.1	n=46
+ vs an FBS opponent	27-19	59%from 59%	+1.1	n=46
+ vs a P5 opponent	27-19	59%from 59%	+1.1	n=46
+ vs the ACC	27-19	59%from 59%	+1.1	n=46
+ at this venue	27-19	59%from 59%	+1.1	n=46
+ in November	10-9	53%from 59%	-0.2	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 59%	+0.8	n=19
+ vs a P5 opponent	27-19	59%from 59%	+1.1	n=46
+ vs the ACC	27-19	59%from 59%	+1.1	n=46
+ at this venue	27-19	59%from 59%	+1.1	n=46
+ in November	10-9	53%from 59%	-0.2	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 59%	+0.8	n=19
+ vs the ACC	27-19	59%from 59%	+1.1	n=46
+ at this venue	27-19	59%from 59%	+1.1	n=46
+ in November	10-9	53%from 59%	-0.2	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 59%	+0.8	n=19
+ at this venue	27-19	59%from 59%	+1.1	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 59%	+0.8	n=19
+ in November	10-9	53%from 59%	-0.2	n=19
+ at this venue	10-9	53%from 53%	-0.2	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 53%	-2.1	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 59%	+0.8	n=19

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.