Notre Dame at Syracuse—

ST Model Notre Dame -28.3

Trends · 2026 week 13

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Notre Dame — the basics

148 graded games since 2014

on the road	27-21	56%	+2.8	n=48
vs Syracuse	5-1	83%	+10.5	n=6
out of conference	77-55	58%	+3.3	n=132
vs an FBS opponent	85-62	58%	+3.5	n=147
vs a P5 opponent	70-50	58%	+3.9	n=120
vs the ACC	39-27	59%	+3.8	n=66
in November	26-23	53%	+2.4	n=49
in the last 5 seasons	43-23	65%	+6.4	n=66

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Notre Dame — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 148 graded games: +3.5 pts vs their number per game	n=148

Notre Dame — combinations

87 lean Notre Dame · 13 lean against

Read this first. 113 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 7.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs Syracuse + out of conference	5-0	100%from 83%	+14.6	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-0	100%from 100%	+14.6	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-0	100%from 100%	+14.6	n=5
+ vs the ACC	5-0	100%from 100%	+14.6	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-0	100%from 100%	+14.6	n=5
+ vs the ACC	5-0	100%from 100%	+14.6	n=5
+ vs the ACC	5-0	100%from 100%	+14.6	n=5
vs Syracuse + vs an FBS opponent	5-1	83%from 83%	+10.5	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-1	83%from 83%	+10.5	n=6
+ vs the ACC	5-1	83%from 83%	+10.5	n=6
+ vs the ACC	5-1	83%from 83%	+10.5	n=6
vs Syracuse + vs a P5 opponent	5-1	83%from 83%	+10.5	n=6
+ vs the ACC	5-1	83%from 83%	+10.5	n=6
vs Syracuse + vs the ACC	5-1	83%from 83%	+10.5	n=6
vs the ACC + in the last 5 seasons	19-7	73%from 59%	+8.9	n=26
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	37-14	73%from 58%	+8.8	n=51
in November + in the last 5 seasons	14-6	70%from 53%	+9.2	n=20
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	14-7	67%from 56%	+6.8	n=21
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	42-23	65%from 58%	+6.4	n=65
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	38-22	63%from 58%	+6.0	n=60
out of conference + vs the ACC	31-20	61%from 58%	+3.5	n=51
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-6	71%from 61%	+8.2	n=21
+ in November	11-11	50%from 61%	+3.2	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 50%	+9.1	n=10
on the road + vs the ACC	17-11	61%from 56%	+3.8	n=28
+ in November	6-4	60%from 61%	-0.3	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 60%	-1.0	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-6	54%from 61%	+1.3	n=13

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Syracuse — the basics

141 graded games since 2014

at home	34-37	48%	-0.3	n=71
vs Notre Dame	1-5	17%	-10.5	n=6
out of conference	22-22	50%	-0.3	n=44
vs an FBS opponent	65-67	49%	-0.6	n=132
vs a P5 opponent	57-61	48%	-1.0	n=118
vs the FBS Independents	4-7	36%	-5.0	n=11
in November	18-28	39%	-3.7	n=46
at this venue	34-37	48%	-0.3	n=71
in the last 5 seasons	30-31	49%	-1.3	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Syracuse — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -6.3 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 141 graded games: -0.4 pts vs their number per game	n=141
Syracuse has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Syracuse — combinations

7 lean Syracuse · 95 lean against

Read this first. 112 combinations shown. The best one here is 58%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 75% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	12-9	57%from 50%	+1.2	n=21
at home + in the last 5 seasons	16-15	52%from 48%	+0.2	n=31
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	16-15	52%from 48%	+0.2	n=31
out of conference + vs an FBS opponent	17-18	49%from 50%	-1.2	n=35
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 49%	-1.5	n=16
+ vs a P5 opponent	9-12	43%from 49%	-3.8	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-6	45%from 43%	-2.0	n=11
+ at this venue	3-5	38%from 43%	-3.9	n=8
+ vs the FBS Independents	3-7	30%from 43%	-6.5	n=10
+ at this venue	6-9	40%from 49%	-0.8	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 40%	0.0	n=7
+ vs the FBS Independents	3-7	30%from 49%	-6.5	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 30%	-5.0	n=5
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	57-61	48%from 49%	-1.0	n=118
+ at this venue	26-29	47%from 48%	-1.2	n=55
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-13	46%from 47%	-2.4	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	23-28	45%from 48%	-2.5	n=51
+ in November	18-28	39%from 48%	-3.7	n=46
+ at this venue	9-12	43%from 39%	-3.9	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-13	32%from 39%	-4.4	n=19
+ vs the FBS Independents	4-7	36%from 48%	-5.0	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 36%	-5.0	n=5
at home + at this venue	34-37	48%from 48%	-0.3	n=71
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-15	52%from 48%	+0.2	n=31
at home + vs a P5 opponent	26-29	47%from 48%	-1.2	n=55
+ at this venue	26-29	47%from 47%	-1.2	n=55
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-13	46%from 47%	-2.4	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-13	46%from 47%	-2.4	n=24
+ in November	9-12	43%from 47%	-3.9	n=21
+ at this venue	9-12	43%from 43%	-3.9	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-5	38%from 43%	-4.0	n=8

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.