SMU at Stanford—

ST Model SMU -14.1

Trends · 2026 week 13

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

SMU — the basics

145 graded games since 2014

on the road	29-40	42%	-1.9	n=69
in a conference game	46-49	48%	+0.7	n=95
vs an FBS opponent	65-73	47%	-0.8	n=138
vs a P5 opponent	19-21	48%	+1.2	n=40
vs the ACC	11-7	61%	+5.9	n=18
in November	20-27	43%	-1.2	n=47
in the last 5 seasons	32-33	49%	+1.8	n=65

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

SMU — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +3.1 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 145 graded games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=145

SMU — combinations

58 lean SMU · 24 lean against

Read this first. 89 combinations shown. The best one here is 75%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 62% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs a P5 opponent + in November	6-2	75%from 48%	+11.2	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 75%	+11.2	n=8
vs the ACC + in November	6-2	75%from 61%	+11.2	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 75%	+11.2	n=8
in a conference game + vs a P5 opponent	11-6	65%from 48%	+7.6	n=17
+ in November	6-2	75%from 65%	+11.2	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 75%	+11.2	n=8
+ vs the ACC	11-6	65%from 65%	+7.6	n=17
+ in November	6-2	75%from 65%	+11.2	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 65%	+7.6	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 65%	+7.6	n=17
in a conference game + vs the ACC	11-6	65%from 48%	+7.6	n=17
+ in November	6-2	75%from 65%	+11.2	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 75%	+11.2	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 65%	+7.6	n=17
on the road + vs the ACC	5-3	63%from 42%	+5.7	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 63%	+5.7	n=8
vs an FBS opponent + vs the ACC	11-7	61%from 47%	+5.9	n=18
+ in November	6-2	75%from 61%	+11.2	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 75%	+11.2	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 61%	+5.9	n=18
vs a P5 opponent + vs the ACC	11-7	61%from 48%	+5.9	n=18
+ in November	6-2	75%from 61%	+11.2	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 75%	+11.2	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 61%	+5.9	n=18

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Stanford — the basics

138 graded games since 2014

at home	28-39	42%	-0.8	n=67
in a conference game	44-56	44%	-0.5	n=100
vs an FBS opponent	59-75	44%	-0.4	n=134
vs a P5 opponent	55-68	45%	-0.5	n=123
vs the ACC	7-10	41%	+2.4	n=17
in November	16-29	36%	-2.4	n=45
at this venue	28-39	42%	-0.8	n=67
in the last 5 seasons	20-39	34%	-1.9	n=59

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Stanford — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 138 graded games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=138
Stanford has covered 3 straight	n=3

Stanford — combinations

38 lean Stanford · 105 lean against

Read this first. 151 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 57% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs the ACC + in November	4-2	67%from 41%	+6.9	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 67%	+6.9	n=6
at home + vs the ACC	4-3	57%from 42%	+9.6	n=7
+ at this venue	4-3	57%from 57%	+9.6	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 57%	+9.6	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 57%	+9.6	n=7
vs the ACC + at this venue	4-3	57%from 41%	+9.6	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 57%	+9.6	n=7
in a conference game + vs the ACC	7-8	47%from 44%	+3.1	n=15
+ in November	4-2	67%from 47%	+6.9	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 67%	+6.9	n=6
+ at this venue	4-3	57%from 47%	+9.6	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 57%	+9.6	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-8	47%from 47%	+3.1	n=15
vs the ACC + in the last 5 seasons	7-8	47%from 41%	+3.1	n=15
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	55-68	45%from 44%	-0.5	n=123
+ at this venue	25-33	43%from 45%	-0.4	n=58
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-16	38%from 43%	-1.9	n=26
+ vs the ACC	7-10	41%from 45%	+2.4	n=17
+ in November	4-2	67%from 41%	+6.9	n=6
+ at this venue	4-3	57%from 41%	+9.6	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-8	47%from 41%	+3.1	n=15
+ in November	16-27	37%from 45%	-2.3	n=43
+ at this venue	7-15	32%from 37%	-4.0	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-13	32%from 37%	-5.5	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	18-34	35%from 45%	-1.9	n=52

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.