Northern Illinois at IowaIowa -30.5o/u 45.5

ST Model Iowa -39.3(+8.8 vs market)
Trends · 2026 week 1
How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Northern Illinois — the basics
143 graded games since 2014
on the road43-2861%+1.6n=71
as an underdog37-2857%+0.3n=65
spread 21+10-663%+4.1n=16
out of conference25-2253%-2.5n=47
vs an FBS opponent65-6849%-0.9n=133
vs a P5 opponent14-864%+1.0n=22
vs the Big Ten4-450%-2.6n=8
in September19-1950%-1.9n=38
in the last 5 seasons27-3444%-0.7n=61
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Northern Illinois — form & streaks
Last 12 games: -3.5 pts vs their number per gamen=12
All 143 graded games: -1.0 pts vs their number per gamen=143
Northern Illinois has failed to cover 2 straightn=2
Northern Illinois — combinations
128 lean Northern Illinois · 4 lean against
Read this first. 186 combinations shown. The best one here is 70%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
CombinationRec%PtsSample
on the road + as an underdog28-1467%from 61%+3.1n=42
+ vs an FBS opponent28-1467%from 67%+3.1n=42
+ in September14-864%from 67%+1.3n=22
+ vs a P5 opponent12-763%from 67%+1.7n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons11-761%from 67%+4.3n=18
+ vs the Big Ten4-450%from 67%-2.6n=8
+ spread 21+4-267%from 67%+8.0n=6
+ out of conference4-267%from 67%+8.0n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent4-267%from 67%+8.0n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent4-267%from 67%+8.0n=6
+ in September4-267%from 67%+8.0n=6
+ out of conference14-864%from 67%+0.9n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons6-367%from 64%+5.4n=9
+ vs an FBS opponent14-864%from 64%+0.9n=22
+ vs a P5 opponent12-763%from 64%+1.7n=19
+ in September12-860%from 64%+0.5n=20
+ vs the Big Ten4-450%from 64%-2.6n=8
+ in September14-864%from 67%+1.3n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons7-370%from 64%+6.0n=10
+ vs a P5 opponent12-763%from 67%+1.7n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons5-363%from 63%+5.7n=8
+ in September11-761%from 63%+1.4n=18
+ vs the Big Ten4-450%from 63%-2.6n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons11-761%from 67%+4.3n=18
+ vs the Big Ten4-450%from 67%-2.6n=8
+ in September4-450%from 50%-2.6n=8
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.