Toledo at Michigan StateMichigan State -11.5o/u 49.5

ST Model Toledo -7.4(-18.9 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Toledo — the basics

148 graded games since 2014

on the road	31-35	47%	-0.9	n=66
as an underdog	17-14	55%	+1.3	n=31
spread 11-14	3-11	21%	-6.1	n=14
out of conference	28-25	53%	+2.1	n=53
vs an FBS opponent	67-71	49%	-0.6	n=138
vs a P5 opponent	12-10	55%	+1.6	n=22
in September	21-19	53%	+3.1	n=40
in the last 5 seasons	34-33	51%	+0.3	n=67

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Toledo — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +5.7 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 148 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=148
Toledo has covered 2 straight	n=2

Toledo — combinations

56 lean Toledo · 24 lean against

Read this first. 100 combinations shown. The best one here is 90%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
as an underdog + in the last 5 seasons	9-1	90%from 55%	+8.0	n=10
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	8-5	62%from 55%	+3.4	n=13
as an underdog + out of conference	12-8	60%from 55%	+2.8	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-1	88%from 60%	+6.1	n=8
+ vs an FBS opponent	12-8	60%from 60%	+2.8	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-1	88%from 60%	+6.1	n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent	9-6	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=15
+ in September	6-6	50%from 60%	+2.0	n=12
+ vs a P5 opponent	9-6	60%from 60%	+2.4	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-1	86%from 60%	+6.5	n=7
+ in September	5-4	56%from 60%	+2.7	n=9
+ in September	6-6	50%from 60%	+2.0	n=12
as an underdog + vs a P5 opponent	9-6	60%from 55%	+2.4	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-1	86%from 60%	+6.5	n=7
+ in September	5-4	56%from 60%	+2.7	n=9
vs a P5 opponent + in September	7-5	58%from 55%	+3.3	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 58%	+7.6	n=6
as an underdog + vs an FBS opponent	17-14	55%from 55%	+1.3	n=31
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-1	90%from 55%	+8.0	n=10
+ vs a P5 opponent	9-6	60%from 55%	+2.4	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-1	86%from 60%	+6.5	n=7
+ in September	5-4	56%from 60%	+2.7	n=9
+ in September	6-6	50%from 55%	+2.0	n=12
out of conference + in September	18-15	55%from 53%	+3.9	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-8	47%from 55%	+3.8	n=15

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Michigan State — the basics

143 graded games since 2014

at home	31-45	41%	-3.8	n=76
as a favorite	34-43	44%	-1.9	n=77
spread 11-14	12-8	60%	+4.1	n=20
out of conference	19-20	49%	-1.2	n=39
vs an FBS opponent	67-71	49%	-1.7	n=138
vs a G5 opponent	11-11	50%	+0.1	n=22
vs the Mid-American	7-3	70%	+5.2	n=10
in September	19-20	49%	-1.0	n=39
at this venue	31-45	41%	-3.8	n=76
in the last 5 seasons	31-29	52%	-1.8	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Michigan State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -2.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 143 graded games: -1.9 pts vs their number per game	n=143
Michigan State has covered 2 straight	n=2

Michigan State — combinations

134 lean Michigan State · 80 lean against

Read this first. 247 combinations shown. The best one here is 88%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 74% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + vs the Mid-American	7-2	78%from 41%	+6.9	n=9
+ in September	7-1	88%from 78%	+8.4	n=8
+ at this venue	7-1	88%from 88%	+8.4	n=8
+ at this venue	7-2	78%from 78%	+6.9	n=9
vs the Mid-American + in September	7-2	78%from 70%	+6.3	n=9
+ at this venue	7-1	88%from 78%	+8.4	n=8
vs the Mid-American + at this venue	7-2	78%from 70%	+6.9	n=9
as a favorite + vs the Mid-American	7-3	70%from 44%	+5.2	n=10
+ in September	7-2	78%from 70%	+6.3	n=9
+ at this venue	7-1	88%from 78%	+8.4	n=8
+ at this venue	7-2	78%from 70%	+6.9	n=9
out of conference + vs the Mid-American	7-3	70%from 49%	+5.2	n=10
+ in September	7-2	78%from 70%	+6.3	n=9
+ at this venue	7-1	88%from 78%	+8.4	n=8
+ at this venue	7-2	78%from 70%	+6.9	n=9
vs an FBS opponent + vs the Mid-American	7-3	70%from 49%	+5.2	n=10
+ in September	7-2	78%from 70%	+6.3	n=9
+ at this venue	7-1	88%from 78%	+8.4	n=8
+ at this venue	7-2	78%from 70%	+6.9	n=9
vs a G5 opponent + vs the Mid-American	7-3	70%from 50%	+5.2	n=10
+ in September	7-2	78%from 70%	+6.3	n=9
+ at this venue	7-1	88%from 78%	+8.4	n=8
+ at this venue	7-2	78%from 70%	+6.9	n=9
spread 11-14 + vs an FBS opponent	12-8	60%from 60%	+4.1	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 60%	-2.6	n=7
+ at this venue	4-5	44%from 60%	+2.1	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 44%	-4.6	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.