Ball State at Ohio StateOhio State -49.5o/u 56.5

ST Model Ohio State -45.3(-4.2 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Ball State — the basics

136 graded games since 2014

on the road	34-33	51%	-2.1	n=67
as an underdog	46-46	50%	-2.0	n=92
spread 21+	6-13	32%	-5.5	n=19
out of conference	22-22	50%	-2.0	n=44
vs an FBS opponent	61-65	48%	-1.6	n=126
vs a P5 opponent	11-9	55%	+2.0	n=20
vs the Big Ten	5-3	63%	+1.1	n=8
in September	20-21	49%	-3.2	n=41
in the last 5 seasons	30-29	51%	-1.2	n=59

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Ball State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 136 graded games: -1.5 pts vs their number per game	n=136

Ball State — combinations

75 lean Ball State · 113 lean against

Read this first. 204 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs the Big Ten + in September	4-2	67%from 63%	+2.5	n=6
as an underdog + vs the Big Ten	5-3	63%from 50%	+1.1	n=8
+ in September	4-2	67%from 63%	+2.5	n=6
out of conference + vs the Big Ten	5-3	63%from 50%	+1.1	n=8
+ in September	4-2	67%from 63%	+2.5	n=6
vs an FBS opponent + vs the Big Ten	5-3	63%from 48%	+1.1	n=8
+ in September	4-2	67%from 63%	+2.5	n=6
vs a P5 opponent + vs the Big Ten	5-3	63%from 55%	+1.1	n=8
+ in September	4-2	67%from 63%	+2.5	n=6
as an underdog + vs a P5 opponent	11-8	58%from 50%	+2.4	n=19
+ vs the Big Ten	5-3	63%from 58%	+1.1	n=8
+ in September	4-2	67%from 63%	+2.5	n=6
+ in September	8-6	57%from 58%	+1.3	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 57%	-5.4	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 58%	-0.8	n=9
vs a P5 opponent + in September	8-6	57%from 55%	+1.3	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 57%	-5.4	n=6
on the road + vs the Big Ten	4-3	57%from 51%	+0.1	n=7
+ in September	4-2	67%from 57%	+2.5	n=6
out of conference + vs a P5 opponent	11-9	55%from 50%	+2.0	n=20
+ vs the Big Ten	5-3	63%from 55%	+1.1	n=8
+ in September	4-2	67%from 63%	+2.5	n=6
+ in September	8-6	57%from 55%	+1.3	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 57%	-5.4	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 55%	-1.3	n=10

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Ohio State — the basics

154 graded games since 2014

at home	45-34	57%	+3.7	n=79
as a favorite	78-65	55%	+2.5	n=143
spread 21+	34-27	56%	+4.0	n=61
out of conference	27-23	54%	+3.7	n=50
vs an FBS opponent	85-67	56%	+3.5	n=152
vs a G5 opponent	12-9	57%	+8.6	n=21
vs the Mid-American	6-3	67%	+14.5	n=9
in September	23-15	61%	+6.7	n=38
at this venue	45-34	57%	+3.7	n=79
in the last 5 seasons	39-25	61%	+2.3	n=64

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Ohio State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +3.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 154 graded games: +3.4 pts vs their number per game	n=154
Ohio State has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Ohio State — combinations

290 lean Ohio State · 5 lean against

Read this first. 348 combinations shown. The best one here is 75%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 75% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs the Mid-American + in September	6-2	75%from 67%	+16.8	n=8
+ at this venue	6-2	75%from 75%	+16.8	n=8
at home + in the last 5 seasons	24-11	69%from 57%	+3.7	n=35
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	24-11	69%from 57%	+3.7	n=35
at home + vs the Mid-American	6-3	67%from 57%	+14.5	n=9
+ in September	6-2	75%from 67%	+16.8	n=8
+ at this venue	6-2	75%from 75%	+16.8	n=8
+ at this venue	6-3	67%from 67%	+14.5	n=9
as a favorite + vs the Mid-American	6-3	67%from 55%	+14.5	n=9
+ in September	6-2	75%from 67%	+16.8	n=8
+ at this venue	6-2	75%from 75%	+16.8	n=8
+ at this venue	6-3	67%from 67%	+14.5	n=9
spread 21+ + vs the Mid-American	6-3	67%from 56%	+14.5	n=9
+ in September	6-2	75%from 67%	+16.8	n=8
+ at this venue	6-2	75%from 75%	+16.8	n=8
+ at this venue	6-3	67%from 67%	+14.5	n=9
out of conference + vs the Mid-American	6-3	67%from 54%	+14.5	n=9
+ in September	6-2	75%from 67%	+16.8	n=8
+ at this venue	6-2	75%from 75%	+16.8	n=8
+ at this venue	6-3	67%from 67%	+14.5	n=9
vs an FBS opponent + vs the Mid-American	6-3	67%from 56%	+14.5	n=9
+ in September	6-2	75%from 67%	+16.8	n=8
+ at this venue	6-2	75%from 75%	+16.8	n=8
+ at this venue	6-3	67%from 67%	+14.5	n=9
vs a G5 opponent + vs the Mid-American	6-3	67%from 57%	+14.5	n=9
+ in September	6-2	75%from 67%	+16.8	n=8
+ at this venue	6-2	75%from 75%	+16.8	n=8
+ at this venue	6-3	67%from 67%	+14.5	n=9

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.