How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Boise State — the basics
148 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 37-27 | 58% | +1.6 | n=64 |
| as an underdog | 14-9 | 61% | +0.5 | n=23 |
| spread 21+ | 16-9 | 64% | +1.1 | n=25 |
| out of conference | 26-26 | 50% | -0.4 | n=52 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 76-66 | 54% | +0.1 | n=142 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 12-19 | 39% | -4.2 | n=31 |
| in September | 22-15 | 59% | +1.0 | n=37 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 37-28 | 57% | +0.5 | n=65 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Boise State — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -0.9 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 148 graded games: +0.4 pts vs their number per game | n=148 |
Boise State — combinations
69 lean Boise State · 20 lean against
Read this first. 103 combinations shown. The best one here is 78%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| spread 21+ + out of conference | 6-2 | 75%from 64% | +8.3 | n=8 |
| + in September | 5-2 | 71%from 75% | +9.4 | n=7 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 75% | +3.7 | n=5 |
| on the road + as an underdog | 10-4 | 71%from 58% | +4.1 | n=14 |
| + out of conference | 7-2 | 78%from 71% | +1.2 | n=9 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +1.2 | n=9 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 5-2 | 71%from 78% | +1.2 | n=7 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-2 | 71%from 78% | -0.8 | n=7 |
| + in September | 4-2 | 67%from 78% | -2.8 | n=6 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 10-4 | 71%from 71% | +4.1 | n=14 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 5-2 | 71%from 71% | +1.2 | n=7 |
| + in September | 4-2 | 67%from 71% | -2.8 | n=6 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-4 | 64%from 71% | +1.8 | n=11 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 5-2 | 71%from 71% | +1.2 | n=7 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 71% | -1.5 | n=5 |
| + in September | 4-2 | 67%from 71% | -2.8 | n=6 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 67% | -4.2 | n=5 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-4 | 64%from 71% | +1.8 | n=11 |
| as an underdog + in September | 5-2 | 71%from 61% | -2.2 | n=7 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-2 | 67%from 71% | -3.3 | n=6 |
| spread 21+ + in September | 5-2 | 71%from 64% | +9.4 | n=7 |
| spread 21+ + in the last 5 seasons | 8-4 | 67%from 64% | +1.6 | n=12 |
| spread 21+ + vs an FBS opponent | 13-7 | 65%from 64% | -0.0 | n=20 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-2 | 78%from 65% | +1.9 | n=9 |
| on the road + in September | 11-7 | 61%from 58% | -0.9 | n=18 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-4 | 56%from 61% | -4.5 | n=9 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.