Marshall at Penn StatePenn State -24o/u 54.5

ST Model Penn State -31.2(+7.2 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Marshall — the basics

149 graded games since 2014

on the road	38-28	58%	+2.0	n=66
as an underdog	28-18	61%	+2.6	n=46
spread 21+	10-13	43%	-1.8	n=23
out of conference	30-24	56%	+1.5	n=54
vs an FBS opponent	70-68	51%	-0.1	n=138
vs a P5 opponent	8-6	57%	+0.8	n=14
in September	23-18	56%	+1.8	n=41
in the last 5 seasons	35-29	55%	+0.5	n=64

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Marshall — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 149 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=149
Marshall has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Marshall — combinations

80 lean Marshall · 4 lean against

Read this first. 92 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 75% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 3.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	6-1	86%from 57%	+5.1	n=7
as an underdog + in September	11-3	79%from 61%	+4.5	n=14
vs a P5 opponent + in September	6-2	75%from 57%	+4.0	n=8
on the road + out of conference	14-6	70%from 58%	+6.0	n=20
+ in September	12-3	80%from 70%	+8.2	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-1	88%from 80%	+10.6	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-2	80%from 70%	+8.5	n=10
+ vs an FBS opponent	14-6	70%from 70%	+6.0	n=20
+ in September	12-3	80%from 70%	+8.2	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-2	80%from 70%	+8.5	n=10
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-3	63%from 70%	+2.3	n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-3	63%from 70%	+2.3	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 63%	+6.7	n=5
as an underdog + in the last 5 seasons	15-7	68%from 61%	+4.9	n=22
on the road + in September	12-6	67%from 58%	+5.8	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 67%	+6.7	n=10
on the road + as an underdog	16-9	64%from 58%	+2.5	n=25
+ in September	8-0	100%from 64%	+9.8	n=8
+ out of conference	9-3	75%from 64%	+4.9	n=12
+ in September	8-0	100%from 75%	+9.8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-1	83%from 75%	+6.6	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	9-3	75%from 75%	+4.9	n=12
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-3	63%from 75%	+2.3	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-4	69%from 64%	+4.5	n=13
+ vs an FBS opponent	16-9	64%from 64%	+2.5	n=25
+ in September	8-0	100%from 64%	+9.8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-4	69%from 64%	+4.5	n=13
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-3	63%from 64%	+2.3	n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-3	63%from 64%	+2.3	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 63%	+6.7	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Penn State — the basics

149 graded games since 2014

at home	44-35	56%	+2.0	n=79
as a favorite	67-49	58%	+3.0	n=116
spread 21+	17-18	49%	-1.2	n=35
out of conference	28-15	65%	+3.3	n=43
vs an FBS opponent	84-63	57%	+2.3	n=147
vs a G5 opponent	14-9	61%	+0.7	n=23
in September	26-16	62%	+2.8	n=42
at this venue	44-35	56%	+2.0	n=79
in the last 5 seasons	38-29	57%	+2.2	n=67

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Penn State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -2.3 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 149 graded games: +2.2 pts vs their number per game	n=149

Penn State — combinations

184 lean Penn State · 50 lean against

Read this first. 255 combinations shown. The best one here is 73%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
out of conference + vs an FBS opponent	28-13	68%from 65%	+3.7	n=41
+ at this venue	17-8	68%from 68%	+3.8	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-4	67%from 68%	+2.7	n=12
+ in September	16-8	67%from 68%	+3.2	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 67%	+2.5	n=10
+ at this venue	13-7	65%from 67%	+2.1	n=20
+ vs a G5 opponent	14-7	67%from 68%	+1.2	n=21
+ at this venue	12-6	67%from 67%	+2.5	n=18
+ in September	11-6	65%from 67%	+0.9	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 67%	-1.3	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-7	65%from 68%	+3.6	n=20
vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent	14-7	67%from 57%	+1.2	n=21
+ at this venue	12-6	67%from 67%	+2.5	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 67%	-2.0	n=8
+ in September	11-6	65%from 67%	+0.9	n=17
+ at this venue	11-5	69%from 65%	+2.9	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 65%	-1.1	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 67%	-1.3	n=9
vs an FBS opponent + in September	26-14	65%from 57%	+3.1	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-5	71%from 65%	+2.6	n=17
+ at this venue	17-10	63%from 65%	+1.6	n=27
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-5	58%from 63%	+0.1	n=12
spread 21+ + in September	11-6	65%from 49%	+2.9	n=17
+ at this venue	9-6	60%from 65%	+2.3	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 60%	-1.9	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 65%	-1.5	n=10

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.