How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Fresno State — the basics
140 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 37-33 | 53% | -0.5 | n=70 |
| as an underdog | 33-26 | 56% | +0.1 | n=59 |
| spread 21+ | 13-11 | 54% | -1.1 | n=24 |
| out of conference | 26-22 | 54% | +2.3 | n=48 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 69-64 | 52% | -0.4 | n=133 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 14-14 | 50% | -1.2 | n=28 |
| vs the Big Ten | 3-3 | 50% | -4.4 | n=6 |
| in September | 20-18 | 53% | +0.8 | n=38 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 33-32 | 51% | +0.7 | n=65 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Fresno State — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: +5.2 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 140 graded games: +0.2 pts vs their number per game | n=140 |
| Fresno State has covered 2 straight | n=2 |
Fresno State — combinations
94 lean Fresno State · 25 lean against
Read this first. 155 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 9-5 | 64%from 50% | +3.2 | n=14 |
| out of conference + in the last 5 seasons | 16-10 | 62%from 54% | +5.0 | n=26 |
| on the road + vs the Big Ten | 3-2 | 60%from 53% | -0.1 | n=5 |
| as an underdog + vs the Big Ten | 3-2 | 60%from 56% | -3.7 | n=5 |
| out of conference + in September | 18-14 | 56%from 54% | +3.3 | n=32 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 9-5 | 64%from 56% | +5.8 | n=14 |
| as an underdog + vs an FBS opponent | 33-26 | 56%from 56% | +0.1 | n=59 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 3-2 | 60%from 56% | -3.7 | n=5 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-8 | 56%from 56% | +1.0 | n=18 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 9-9 | 50%from 56% | -3.9 | n=18 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-3 | 67%from 50% | +1.8 | n=9 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 3-2 | 60%from 50% | -3.7 | n=5 |
| + in September | 7-6 | 54%from 50% | -3.0 | n=13 |
| + in September | 8-9 | 47%from 56% | -6.7 | n=17 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-2 | 67%from 47% | -2.2 | n=6 |
| as an underdog + in the last 5 seasons | 10-8 | 56%from 56% | +1.0 | n=18 |
| in September + in the last 5 seasons | 10-8 | 56%from 53% | +1.1 | n=18 |
| on the road + vs a P5 opponent | 11-9 | 55%from 53% | -1.6 | n=20 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-3 | 70%from 55% | +1.8 | n=10 |
| + in September | 9-6 | 60%from 55% | +1.5 | n=15 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-1 | 83%from 60% | +9.2 | n=6 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 3-2 | 60%from 55% | -0.1 | n=5 |
| spread 21+ + in September | 7-6 | 54%from 54% | +1.9 | n=13 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-3 | 50%from 54% | -3.0 | n=6 |
| spread 21+ + in the last 5 seasons | 7-6 | 54%from 54% | -3.4 | n=13 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.