Wisconsin at Notre DameNotre Dame -20.5o/u 47.5

ST Model Notre Dame -20.9(+0.4 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Wisconsin — the basics

148 graded games since 2014

at a neutral site	10-7	59%	-1.9	n=17
as an underdog	19-15	56%	+0.8	n=34
spread 14.5-21	9-11	45%	-0.2	n=20
out of conference	22-21	51%	+1.6	n=43
vs an FBS opponent	73-72	50%	+0.0	n=145
vs a P5 opponent	62-63	50%	-0.7	n=125
vs the FBS Independents	2-3	40%	-5.4	n=5
in September	16-22	42%	-0.9	n=38
in the last 5 seasons	28-34	45%	-2.2	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Wisconsin — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 148 graded games: -0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=148

Wisconsin — combinations

26 lean Wisconsin · 64 lean against

Read this first. 101 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at a neutral site + as an underdog	6-2	75%from 59%	+7.4	n=8
+ out of conference	5-1	83%from 75%	+9.7	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-1	83%from 83%	+9.7	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-1	83%from 83%	+9.7	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-2	75%from 75%	+7.4	n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent	6-2	75%from 75%	+7.4	n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent	6-2	75%from 75%	+7.4	n=8
at a neutral site + out of conference	8-4	67%from 59%	+2.3	n=12
+ vs an FBS opponent	8-4	67%from 67%	+2.3	n=12
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-4	64%from 67%	+2.3	n=11
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-4	64%from 67%	+2.3	n=11
as an underdog + out of conference	5-3	63%from 56%	+4.5	n=8
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-3	63%from 63%	+4.5	n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-3	63%from 63%	+4.5	n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-3	63%from 63%	+4.5	n=8
at a neutral site + in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 59%	-3.3	n=5
at a neutral site + vs an FBS opponent	10-7	59%from 59%	-1.9	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 59%	-3.3	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	9-7	56%from 59%	-2.1	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 56%	-3.3	n=5
at a neutral site + vs a P5 opponent	9-7	56%from 59%	-2.1	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 56%	-3.3	n=5
as an underdog + vs an FBS opponent	19-15	56%from 56%	+0.8	n=34
+ vs a P5 opponent	19-15	56%from 56%	+0.8	n=34
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 56%	-1.9	n=19
+ in September	2-5	29%from 56%	-0.6	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 56%	-1.9	n=19
+ in September	2-5	29%from 56%	-0.6	n=7

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Notre Dame — the basics

148 graded games since 2014

at a neutral site	18-9	67%	+5.8	n=27
as a favorite	72-51	59%	+4.0	n=123
spread 14.5-21	16-17	48%	+0.5	n=33
out of conference	77-55	58%	+3.3	n=132
vs an FBS opponent	85-62	58%	+3.5	n=147
vs a P5 opponent	70-50	58%	+3.9	n=120
vs the Big Ten	11-7	61%	+4.1	n=18
in September	28-18	61%	+4.3	n=46
in the last 5 seasons	43-23	65%	+6.4	n=66

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Notre Dame — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 148 graded games: +3.5 pts vs their number per game	n=148

Notre Dame — combinations

130 lean Notre Dame · 23 lean against

Read this first. 167 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 85% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 5.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs the Big Ten + in September	8-2	80%from 61%	+12.3	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-0	100%from 80%	+20.0	n=5
vs the Big Ten + in the last 5 seasons	8-2	80%from 61%	+11.1	n=10
at a neutral site + in the last 5 seasons	10-3	77%from 67%	+10.2	n=13
at a neutral site + as a favorite	13-4	76%from 67%	+8.6	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-1	89%from 76%	+10.8	n=9
+ vs a P5 opponent	10-3	77%from 76%	+7.5	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-0	100%from 77%	+9.8	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	13-4	76%from 76%	+8.6	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-1	89%from 76%	+10.8	n=9
+ vs a P5 opponent	10-3	77%from 76%	+7.5	n=13
+ out of conference	12-4	75%from 76%	+8.8	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-1	88%from 75%	+11.6	n=8
+ vs an FBS opponent	12-4	75%from 75%	+8.8	n=16
+ vs a P5 opponent	9-3	75%from 75%	+7.7	n=12
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	37-14	73%from 58%	+8.8	n=51
at a neutral site + out of conference	17-8	68%from 67%	+6.6	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-3	75%from 68%	+10.6	n=12
+ vs an FBS opponent	17-8	68%from 68%	+6.6	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-3	75%from 68%	+10.6	n=12
+ vs a P5 opponent	13-7	65%from 68%	+5.7	n=20
+ vs the Big Ten	2-3	40%from 68%	+2.4	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	13-7	65%from 68%	+5.7	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 65%	+9.9	n=8
+ vs the Big Ten	2-3	40%from 65%	+2.4	n=5
+ vs the Big Ten	2-3	40%from 68%	+2.4	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.