Akron at Minnesota—

ST Model Minnesota -21.3

Trends · 2026 week 3

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Akron — the basics

132 graded games since 2014

on the road	33-36	48%	-1.9	n=69
out of conference	15-25	38%	-2.1	n=40
vs an FBS opponent	56-68	45%	-2.8	n=124
vs a P5 opponent	7-14	33%	-5.3	n=21
vs the Big Ten	3-7	30%	-8.2	n=10
in September	12-26	32%	-3.2	n=38
in the last 5 seasons	29-29	50%	-0.4	n=58

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Akron — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +0.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 132 graded games: -2.4 pts vs their number per game	n=132

Akron — combinations

0 lean Akron · 88 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 50%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	27-27	50%from 45%	-0.8	n=54
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	16-16	50%from 48%	+0.3	n=32
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	33-36	48%from 48%	-1.9	n=69
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-16	50%from 48%	+0.3	n=32
+ in September	10-14	42%from 48%	-2.0	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-10	29%from 42%	-6.7	n=14
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-12	37%from 48%	-4.7	n=19
+ in September	5-11	31%from 37%	-4.7	n=16
+ vs the Big Ten	3-7	30%from 37%	-8.2	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-8	27%from 37%	-6.6	n=11
+ vs the Big Ten	3-7	30%from 48%	-8.2	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 30%	-7.4	n=6
+ in September	2-6	25%from 30%	-8.0	n=8
on the road + out of conference	11-13	46%from 48%	-1.8	n=24
+ vs an FBS opponent	11-13	46%from 46%	-1.8	n=24
+ in September	9-11	45%from 46%	-0.3	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-8	38%from 46%	-4.4	n=13
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-12	37%from 46%	-4.7	n=19
+ vs the Big Ten	3-7	30%from 46%	-8.2	n=10
+ in September	9-11	45%from 46%	-0.3	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-8	33%from 45%	-5.1	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-8	38%from 46%	-4.4	n=13
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-12	37%from 46%	-4.7	n=19
+ in September	5-11	31%from 37%	-4.7	n=16
+ vs the Big Ten	3-7	30%from 37%	-8.2	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-8	27%from 37%	-6.6	n=11
+ vs the Big Ten	3-7	30%from 46%	-8.2	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 30%	-7.4	n=6
+ in September	2-6	25%from 30%	-8.0	n=8

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Minnesota — the basics

138 graded games since 2014

at home	36-37	49%	+1.0	n=73
out of conference	22-19	54%	+1.8	n=41
vs an FBS opponent	71-62	53%	+1.0	n=133
vs a G5 opponent	12-13	48%	-1.2	n=25
vs the Mid-American	3-7	30%	-8.3	n=10
in September	18-20	47%	+0.7	n=38
at this venue	36-37	49%	+1.0	n=73
in the last 5 seasons	34-28	55%	+1.0	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Minnesota — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 138 graded games: +1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=138
Minnesota has covered 3 straight	n=3

Minnesota — combinations

34 lean Minnesota · 92 lean against

Read this first. 147 combinations shown. The best one here is 70%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 75% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	7-4	64%from 48%	+1.4	n=11
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	12-7	63%from 54%	+2.3	n=19
at home + in the last 5 seasons	18-14	56%from 49%	+2.6	n=32
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	18-14	56%from 49%	+2.6	n=32
out of conference + vs an FBS opponent	19-17	53%from 54%	+1.2	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-7	56%from 53%	-0.6	n=16
+ in September	11-13	46%from 53%	+0.1	n=24
+ at this venue	9-9	50%from 46%	-1.2	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 46%	-1.6	n=10
+ vs a G5 opponent	9-11	45%from 53%	-3.1	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 45%	-4.9	n=8
+ in September	6-9	40%from 45%	-3.3	n=15
+ at this venue	6-10	38%from 45%	-4.1	n=16
+ vs the Mid-American	3-7	30%from 45%	-8.3	n=10
+ at this venue	9-11	45%from 53%	-2.0	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 45%	-3.4	n=8
+ vs the Mid-American	3-7	30%from 53%	-8.3	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-4	20%from 30%	-10.2	n=5
+ in September	1-5	17%from 30%	-11.6	n=6
+ at this venue	1-7	13%from 30%	-11.0	n=8
in September + in the last 5 seasons	10-9	53%from 47%	+1.9	n=19
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	31-28	53%from 53%	+0.1	n=59
out of conference + in September	14-14	50%from 54%	+1.6	n=28
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-5	62%from 50%	+2.9	n=13
+ at this venue	12-10	55%from 50%	+0.8	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 55%	+3.3	n=10

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.