USC at Rutgers—

ST Model USC -13.9

Trends · 2026 week 3

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

USC — the basics

145 graded games since 2014

on the road	22-36	38%	-2.1	n=58
in a conference game	44-60	42%	-1.7	n=104
vs an FBS opponent	63-81	44%	-1.3	n=144
vs a P5 opponent	54-76	42%	-2.4	n=130
vs the Big Ten	7-16	30%	-2.9	n=23
in September	21-25	46%	-0.4	n=46
in the last 5 seasons	29-36	45%	-2.0	n=65

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

USC — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 145 graded games: -1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=145
USC has failed to cover 4 straight	n=4

USC — combinations

2 lean USC · 84 lean against

Read this first. 93 combinations shown. The best one here is 55%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in September + in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 46%	+1.3	n=20
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	29-36	45%from 44%	-2.0	n=65
vs an FBS opponent + in September	20-25	44%from 44%	-0.5	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 44%	+1.3	n=20
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	44-60	42%from 42%	-1.7	n=104
+ vs a P5 opponent	44-60	42%from 42%	-1.7	n=104
+ in September	11-17	39%from 42%	-1.6	n=28
+ vs the Big Ten	7-11	39%from 42%	-1.4	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-30	35%from 42%	-5.2	n=46
+ in September	11-17	39%from 42%	-1.6	n=28
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-9	31%from 39%	-5.7	n=13
+ vs the Big Ten	7-11	39%from 42%	-1.4	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-11	39%from 39%	-1.4	n=18
+ in September	1-4	20%from 39%	-4.2	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-30	35%from 42%	-5.2	n=46
in a conference game + vs a P5 opponent	44-60	42%from 42%	-1.7	n=104
+ in September	11-17	39%from 42%	-1.6	n=28
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-9	31%from 39%	-5.7	n=13
+ vs the Big Ten	7-11	39%from 42%	-1.4	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-11	39%from 39%	-1.4	n=18
+ in September	1-4	20%from 39%	-4.2	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-30	35%from 42%	-5.2	n=46
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	54-76	42%from 44%	-2.4	n=130
+ in the last 5 seasons	22-34	39%from 42%	-4.2	n=56
+ in September	12-22	35%from 42%	-4.1	n=34
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-9	36%from 35%	-4.5	n=14
+ vs the Big Ten	7-16	30%from 42%	-2.9	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-11	39%from 30%	-1.4	n=18
+ in September	1-4	20%from 30%	-4.2	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Rutgers — the basics

138 graded games since 2014

at home	35-38	48%	-2.4	n=73
in a conference game	44-59	43%	-4.0	n=103
vs an FBS opponent	64-67	49%	-2.2	n=131
vs a P5 opponent	56-64	47%	-3.0	n=120
vs the Big Ten	44-59	43%	-4.0	n=103
in September	26-16	62%	+0.7	n=42
at this venue	17-20	46%	-2.7	n=37
in the last 5 seasons	31-29	52%	-1.3	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Rutgers — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -2.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 138 graded games: -1.9 pts vs their number per game	n=138

Rutgers — combinations

39 lean Rutgers · 87 lean against

Read this first. 149 combinations shown. The best one here is 85%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 64% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in September + at this venue	11-2	85%from 62%	+8.7	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-2	85%from 85%	+8.7	n=13
in September + in the last 5 seasons	16-4	80%from 62%	+6.7	n=20
at home + in September	18-7	72%from 48%	+4.6	n=25
+ at this venue	11-2	85%from 72%	+8.7	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-2	85%from 85%	+8.7	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-2	85%from 72%	+8.7	n=13
vs an FBS opponent + in September	22-14	61%from 49%	+0.4	n=36
+ at this venue	8-2	80%from 61%	+9.3	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-2	80%from 80%	+9.3	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-4	76%from 61%	+6.8	n=17
vs a P5 opponent + in September	14-12	54%from 47%	-3.0	n=26
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-3	73%from 54%	+4.0	n=11
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 54%	+1.4	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 60%	+1.4	n=5
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	28-28	50%from 49%	-1.8	n=56
at home + in the last 5 seasons	16-16	50%from 48%	-2.8	n=32
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	16-16	50%from 46%	-2.8	n=32
in a conference game + in September	8-8	50%from 43%	-4.4	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 50%	+1.2	n=7
vs the Big Ten + in September	8-8	50%from 43%	-4.4	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 50%	+1.2	n=7
at home + vs an FBS opponent	32-36	47%from 48%	-2.8	n=68
+ in September	15-6	71%from 47%	+4.8	n=21
+ at this venue	8-2	80%from 71%	+9.3	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-2	80%from 71%	+9.3	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-15	46%from 47%	-3.9	n=28
+ at this venue	14-19	42%from 47%	-3.6	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-15	46%from 42%	-3.9	n=28
+ vs a P5 opponent	24-34	41%from 47%	-4.9	n=58
+ in September	7-5	58%from 41%	-0.7	n=12
+ vs the Big Ten	20-32	38%from 41%	-6.2	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-14	36%from 41%	-8.3	n=22
+ at this venue	9-18	33%from 41%	-7.2	n=27
+ vs the Big Ten	20-32	38%from 47%	-6.2	n=52
+ in September	5-3	63%from 38%	-2.2	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-14	33%from 38%	-9.3	n=21
+ at this venue	8-18	31%from 38%	-7.9	n=26

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.