UCLA at Maryland—

ST Model Maryland -2.2

Trends · 2026 week 4

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

UCLA — the basics

140 graded games since 2014

on the road	31-31	50%	+1.0	n=62
in a conference game	49-55	47%	-0.5	n=104
vs an FBS opponent	60-78	43%	-1.7	n=138
vs a P5 opponent	54-65	45%	-1.0	n=119
vs the Big Ten	9-10	47%	+0.2	n=19
in September	17-22	44%	-2.5	n=39
in the last 5 seasons	30-32	48%	-1.0	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

UCLA — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -5.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 140 graded games: -1.6 pts vs their number per game	n=140

UCLA — combinations

53 lean UCLA · 9 lean against

Read this first. 81 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 61% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + vs the Big Ten	6-3	67%from 50%	+4.2	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-3	67%from 67%	+4.2	n=9
in a conference game + in September	8-5	62%from 47%	+2.2	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 62%	-1.8	n=6
on the road + in September	11-7	61%from 50%	+3.4	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 61%	+2.6	n=7
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	16-11	59%from 50%	+2.6	n=27
in September + in the last 5 seasons	9-8	53%from 44%	-3.0	n=17
vs a P5 opponent + in September	12-11	52%from 45%	+0.6	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 52%	+0.8	n=8
on the road + in a conference game	27-25	52%from 50%	+1.4	n=52
+ in September	7-3	70%from 52%	+5.8	n=10
+ vs the Big Ten	6-3	67%from 52%	+4.2	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-3	67%from 67%	+4.2	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-9	61%from 52%	+3.2	n=23
+ vs an FBS opponent	27-25	52%from 52%	+1.4	n=52
+ in September	7-3	70%from 52%	+5.8	n=10
+ vs the Big Ten	6-3	67%from 52%	+4.2	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-9	61%from 52%	+3.2	n=23
+ vs a P5 opponent	27-25	52%from 52%	+1.4	n=52
+ vs a P5 opponent	27-25	52%from 52%	+1.4	n=52
+ in September	7-3	70%from 52%	+5.8	n=10
+ vs the Big Ten	6-3	67%from 52%	+4.2	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-9	61%from 52%	+3.2	n=23
on the road + vs a P5 opponent	29-27	52%from 50%	+1.4	n=56
+ vs the Big Ten	6-3	67%from 52%	+4.2	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-3	67%from 67%	+4.2	n=9
+ in September	9-5	64%from 52%	+4.2	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 64%	+3.3	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-9	63%from 52%	+3.2	n=24

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Maryland — the basics

139 graded games since 2014

at home	32-39	45%	-3.1	n=71
in a conference game	39-61	39%	-4.7	n=100
vs an FBS opponent	58-74	44%	-2.3	n=132
vs a P5 opponent	50-65	43%	-2.5	n=115
vs the Big Ten	39-61	39%	-4.7	n=100
in September	22-19	54%	+2.8	n=41
at this venue	32-39	45%	-3.1	n=71
in the last 5 seasons	28-35	44%	-1.2	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Maryland — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.9 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 139 graded games: -1.8 pts vs their number per game	n=139
Maryland has failed to cover 5 straight	n=5

Maryland — combinations

32 lean Maryland · 100 lean against

Read this first. 140 combinations shown. The best one here is 70%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs a P5 opponent + in September	14-6	70%from 43%	+8.8	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 70%	+8.1	n=10
+ at this venue	5-3	63%from 70%	+4.0	n=8
in a conference game + in September	7-4	64%from 39%	+5.8	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 64%	+6.2	n=7
vs the Big Ten + in September	7-4	64%from 39%	+5.8	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 64%	+6.2	n=7
vs an FBS opponent + in September	20-15	57%from 44%	+3.2	n=35
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-6	63%from 57%	+5.3	n=16
+ at this venue	8-9	47%from 57%	-3.6	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 47%	+2.2	n=9
in September + in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 54%	+4.3	n=20
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	27-32	46%from 44%	-1.3	n=59
at home + vs an FBS opponent	29-35	45%from 45%	-4.2	n=64
+ in September	8-9	47%from 45%	-3.6	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 47%	+2.2	n=9
+ at this venue	8-9	47%from 47%	-3.6	n=17
+ at this venue	29-35	45%from 45%	-4.2	n=64
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-17	45%from 45%	-3.1	n=31
+ vs a P5 opponent	24-29	45%from 45%	-4.2	n=53
+ in September	5-3	63%from 45%	+4.0	n=8
+ at this venue	24-29	45%from 45%	-4.2	n=53
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-14	44%from 45%	-4.6	n=25
+ vs the Big Ten	20-28	42%from 45%	-6.2	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-17	45%from 45%	-3.1	n=31
+ vs the Big Ten	20-28	42%from 45%	-6.2	n=48
+ at this venue	20-28	42%from 42%	-6.2	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-14	36%from 42%	-7.2	n=22

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.