Notre Dame at Purdue—

ST Model Notre Dame -25.5

Trends · 2026 week 4

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Notre Dame — the basics

148 graded games since 2014

on the road	27-21	56%	+2.8	n=48
out of conference	77-55	58%	+3.3	n=132
vs an FBS opponent	85-62	58%	+3.5	n=147
vs a P5 opponent	70-50	58%	+3.9	n=120
vs the Big Ten	11-7	61%	+4.1	n=18
in September	28-18	61%	+4.3	n=46
in the last 5 seasons	43-23	65%	+6.4	n=66

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Notre Dame — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +4.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 148 graded games: +3.5 pts vs their number per game	n=148

Notre Dame — combinations

82 lean Notre Dame · 0 lean against

Read this first. 89 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 5.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs the Big Ten + in September	8-2	80%from 61%	+12.3	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-0	100%from 80%	+20.0	n=5
vs the Big Ten + in the last 5 seasons	8-2	80%from 61%	+11.1	n=10
on the road + vs the Big Ten	4-1	80%from 56%	+10.3	n=5
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	37-14	73%from 58%	+8.8	n=51
on the road + in September	10-4	71%from 56%	+12.5	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-1	86%from 71%	+17.5	n=7
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	14-7	67%from 56%	+6.8	n=21
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	42-23	65%from 58%	+6.4	n=65
out of conference + in September	28-16	64%from 58%	+4.8	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 64%	+4.4	n=18
vs a P5 opponent + in September	21-12	64%from 58%	+6.7	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-3	77%from 64%	+11.6	n=13
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	38-22	63%from 58%	+6.0	n=60
out of conference + vs the Big Ten	11-7	61%from 58%	+4.1	n=18
+ in September	8-2	80%from 61%	+12.3	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-0	100%from 80%	+20.0	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-2	80%from 61%	+11.1	n=10
vs an FBS opponent + vs the Big Ten	11-7	61%from 58%	+4.1	n=18
+ in September	8-2	80%from 61%	+12.3	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-0	100%from 80%	+20.0	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-2	80%from 61%	+11.1	n=10
vs a P5 opponent + vs the Big Ten	11-7	61%from 58%	+4.1	n=18
+ in September	8-2	80%from 61%	+12.3	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-0	100%from 80%	+20.0	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-2	80%from 61%	+11.1	n=10

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Purdue — the basics

138 graded games since 2014

at home	28-47	37%	-3.1	n=75
out of conference	18-19	49%	-2.1	n=37
vs an FBS opponent	59-73	45%	-2.1	n=132
vs a P5 opponent	56-65	46%	-1.7	n=121
vs the FBS Independents	2-3	40%	-6.5	n=5
in September	18-23	44%	-0.5	n=41
at this venue	28-47	37%	-3.1	n=75
in the last 5 seasons	24-38	39%	-3.1	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Purdue — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -6.3 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 138 graded games: -1.5 pts vs their number per game	n=138
Purdue has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Purdue — combinations

5 lean Purdue · 89 lean against

Read this first. 111 combinations shown. The best one here is 53%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + out of conference	12-11	52%from 37%	-2.0	n=23
+ at this venue	12-11	52%from 52%	-2.0	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 52%	-4.8	n=9
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-4	50%from 52%	-8.3	n=8
+ in September	4-4	50%from 50%	-8.3	n=8
+ at this venue	4-4	50%from 50%	-8.3	n=8
+ in September	10-11	48%from 52%	-3.5	n=21
+ at this venue	10-11	48%from 48%	-3.5	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-5	29%from 48%	-10.2	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 52%	-4.8	n=9
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-10	41%from 52%	-6.5	n=17
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-4	50%from 41%	-8.3	n=8
+ at this venue	7-10	41%from 41%	-6.5	n=17
+ in September	6-10	38%from 41%	-7.8	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 41%	-12.3	n=6
out of conference + at this venue	12-11	52%from 49%	-2.0	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 52%	-4.8	n=9
out of conference + vs a P5 opponent	10-10	50%from 49%	-3.7	n=20
+ in September	9-8	53%from 50%	+0.1	n=17
+ at this venue	4-4	50%from 53%	-8.3	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-6	33%from 53%	-7.3	n=9
+ at this venue	4-4	50%from 50%	-8.3	n=8
+ vs the FBS Independents	2-3	40%from 50%	-6.5	n=5
+ in September	2-3	40%from 40%	-6.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-7	36%from 50%	-8.7	n=11

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.