Oregon at USCOregon -5.5o/u 58.5

ST Model Oregon -1.8(+3.7 vs market)
Trends · 2026 week 4
How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Oregon — the basics
146 graded games since 2014
on the road32-2259%+0.8n=54
vs USC4-267%+6.9n=6
as a favorite62-5254%+1.3n=114
spread 3.5-712-1250%-0.5n=24
in a conference game58-4855%-1.0n=106
vs an FBS opponent71-6552%-0.5n=136
vs a P5 opponent67-5953%-0.7n=126
vs the Big Ten14-1352%-0.7n=27
in September17-2145%+1.2n=38
in the last 5 seasons39-2957%+1.7n=68
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Oregon — form & streaks
Last 12 games: -0.5 pts vs their number per gamen=12
All 146 graded games: -0.2 pts vs their number per gamen=146
Oregon — combinations
152 lean Oregon · 27 lean against
Read this first. 205 combinations shown. The best one here is 75%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
CombinationRec%PtsSample
spread 3.5-7 + in the last 5 seasons9-469%from 50%+3.4n=13
on the road + in the last 5 seasons17-868%from 59%+3.9n=25
vs USC + in a conference game4-267%from 67%+6.9n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent4-267%from 67%+6.9n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent4-267%from 67%+6.9n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent4-267%from 67%+6.9n=6
vs USC + vs an FBS opponent4-267%from 67%+6.9n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent4-267%from 67%+6.9n=6
vs USC + vs a P5 opponent4-267%from 67%+6.9n=6
on the road + as a favorite25-1464%from 59%+2.2n=39
+ spread 3.5-75-271%from 64%+8.1n=7
+ vs an FBS opponent5-271%from 71%+8.1n=7
+ vs a P5 opponent5-271%from 71%+8.1n=7
+ in a conference game4-267%from 71%+8.8n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons4-267%from 71%+4.7n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons13-668%from 64%+4.9n=19
+ vs an FBS opponent25-1464%from 64%+2.2n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons13-668%from 64%+4.9n=19
+ vs a P5 opponent24-1463%from 64%+1.7n=38
+ in September6-555%from 64%+2.6n=11
+ vs the Big Ten4-450%from 64%+2.9n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent24-1463%from 64%+1.7n=38
+ in the last 5 seasons13-668%from 63%+4.9n=19
+ in September5-550%from 63%+0.6n=10
+ vs the Big Ten4-450%from 63%+2.9n=8
+ in a conference game22-1461%from 64%+1.3n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons11-665%from 61%+4.3n=17
+ vs an FBS opponent22-1461%from 61%+1.3n=36
+ vs a P5 opponent22-1461%from 61%+1.3n=36
+ vs the Big Ten4-450%from 61%+2.9n=8
+ in September3-538%from 61%-1.7n=8
+ in September6-555%from 64%+2.6n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons3-350%from 55%+2.7n=6
+ vs the Big Ten4-450%from 64%+2.9n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons4-450%from 50%+2.9n=8
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.