Minnesota at Washington—

ST Model Washington -9.2

Trends · 2026 week 4

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Minnesota — the basics

138 graded games since 2014

on the road	29-25	54%	+0.6	n=54
in a conference game	52-45	54%	+0.9	n=97
vs an FBS opponent	71-62	53%	+1.0	n=133
vs a P5 opponent	62-51	55%	+1.7	n=113
vs the Big Ten	52-45	54%	+0.9	n=97
in September	18-20	47%	+0.7	n=38
in the last 5 seasons	34-28	55%	+1.0	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Minnesota — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 138 graded games: +1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=138
Minnesota has covered 3 straight	n=3

Minnesota — combinations

49 lean Minnesota · 35 lean against

Read this first. 96 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in a conference game	27-21	56%from 54%	+0.1	n=48
+ in September	4-2	67%from 56%	+4.0	n=6
+ vs an FBS opponent	27-21	56%from 56%	+0.1	n=48
+ in September	4-2	67%from 56%	+4.0	n=6
+ vs a P5 opponent	27-21	56%from 56%	+0.1	n=48
+ vs the Big Ten	27-21	56%from 56%	+0.1	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-11	48%from 56%	-1.9	n=21
+ vs a P5 opponent	27-21	56%from 56%	+0.1	n=48
+ in September	4-2	67%from 56%	+4.0	n=6
+ vs the Big Ten	27-21	56%from 56%	+0.1	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-11	48%from 56%	-1.9	n=21
+ vs the Big Ten	27-21	56%from 56%	+0.1	n=48
+ in September	4-2	67%from 56%	+4.0	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-11	48%from 56%	-1.9	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-11	48%from 56%	-1.9	n=21
on the road + vs the Big Ten	27-21	56%from 54%	+0.1	n=48
+ in September	4-2	67%from 56%	+4.0	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-11	48%from 56%	-1.9	n=21
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	62-51	55%from 53%	+1.7	n=113
+ vs the Big Ten	52-45	54%from 55%	+0.9	n=97
+ in the last 5 seasons	22-21	51%from 54%	+0.4	n=43
+ in September	4-6	40%from 54%	-1.6	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	27-24	53%from 55%	+0.9	n=51
+ in September	9-10	47%from 55%	+2.0	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-6	45%from 47%	+1.9	n=11

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Washington — the basics

144 graded games since 2014

at home	37-37	50%	+2.2	n=74
in a conference game	45-56	45%	+0.7	n=101
vs an FBS opponent	65-70	48%	+1.8	n=135
vs a P5 opponent	55-65	46%	+0.9	n=120
vs the Big Ten	13-14	48%	+0.1	n=27
in September	25-19	57%	+4.1	n=44
at this venue	37-37	50%	+2.2	n=74
in the last 5 seasons	30-36	45%	+0.5	n=66

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Washington — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +7.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 144 graded games: +2.0 pts vs their number per game	n=144

Washington — combinations

68 lean Washington · 63 lean against

Read this first. 154 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 69% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + vs the Big Ten	10-2	83%from 50%	+7.5	n=12
+ at this venue	10-2	83%from 83%	+7.5	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-2	80%from 83%	+6.7	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-2	80%from 83%	+6.7	n=10
+ in September	4-1	80%from 83%	+5.6	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+5.6	n=5
vs the Big Ten + at this venue	10-2	83%from 48%	+7.5	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-2	80%from 83%	+6.7	n=10
in September + in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 57%	+4.7	n=20
at home + in September	19-13	59%from 50%	+4.4	n=32
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-5	67%from 59%	+5.9	n=15
+ at this venue	19-13	59%from 59%	+4.4	n=32
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-5	67%from 59%	+5.9	n=15
in September + at this venue	19-13	59%from 57%	+4.4	n=32
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-5	67%from 59%	+5.9	n=15
vs an FBS opponent + in September	20-16	56%from 48%	+4.0	n=36
+ at this venue	14-10	58%from 56%	+4.3	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-4	64%from 58%	+6.1	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-7	56%from 56%	+4.5	n=16
vs the Big Ten + in September	5-4	56%from 48%	+2.1	n=9
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 56%	+5.6	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 56%	+1.3	n=6
at home + in the last 5 seasons	18-16	53%from 50%	+2.5	n=34
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	18-16	53%from 50%	+2.5	n=34
vs a P5 opponent + in September	13-12	52%from 46%	+2.1	n=25
+ at this venue	8-6	57%from 52%	+1.4	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 57%	+2.7	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 52%	+1.9	n=11

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.