Michigan at Minnesota—

ST Model Michigan -8.6

Trends · 2026 week 5

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Michigan — the basics

150 graded games since 2014

on the road	29-25	54%	+1.5	n=54
vs Minnesota	3-3	50%	+2.1	n=6
in a conference game	60-45	57%	+2.1	n=105
vs an FBS opponent	78-72	52%	+1.4	n=150
vs a P5 opponent	70-59	54%	+1.6	n=129
vs the Big Ten	60-45	57%	+2.1	n=105
in October	23-18	56%	+3.4	n=41
in the last 5 seasons	39-30	57%	+3.4	n=69

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Michigan — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 150 graded games: +1.4 pts vs their number per game	n=150
Michigan has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Michigan — combinations

75 lean Michigan · 5 lean against

Read this first. 113 combinations shown. The best one here is 68%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	15-8	65%from 54%	+6.0	n=23
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	30-18	63%from 57%	+4.3	n=48
vs the Big Ten + in the last 5 seasons	30-18	63%from 57%	+4.3	n=48
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	35-23	60%from 54%	+3.8	n=58
on the road + in a conference game	29-21	58%from 54%	+2.6	n=50
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-7	68%from 58%	+6.6	n=22
+ vs an FBS opponent	29-21	58%from 58%	+2.6	n=50
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-7	68%from 58%	+6.6	n=22
+ vs a P5 opponent	29-21	58%from 58%	+2.6	n=50
+ vs the Big Ten	29-21	58%from 58%	+2.6	n=50
+ in October	11-11	50%from 58%	+2.7	n=22
+ vs a P5 opponent	29-21	58%from 58%	+2.6	n=50
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-7	68%from 58%	+6.6	n=22
+ vs the Big Ten	29-21	58%from 58%	+2.6	n=50
+ in October	11-11	50%from 58%	+2.7	n=22
+ vs the Big Ten	29-21	58%from 58%	+2.6	n=50
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-7	68%from 58%	+6.6	n=22
+ in October	11-11	50%from 58%	+2.7	n=22
+ in October	11-11	50%from 58%	+2.7	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-6	45%from 50%	+1.6	n=11
on the road + vs the Big Ten	29-21	58%from 54%	+2.6	n=50
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-7	68%from 58%	+6.6	n=22
+ in October	11-11	50%from 58%	+2.7	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-6	45%from 50%	+1.6	n=11
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	60-45	57%from 57%	+2.1	n=105
+ in the last 5 seasons	30-18	63%from 57%	+4.3	n=48
+ vs a P5 opponent	60-45	57%from 57%	+2.1	n=105
+ in the last 5 seasons	30-18	63%from 57%	+4.3	n=48
+ vs the Big Ten	60-45	57%from 57%	+2.1	n=105
+ in October	22-18	55%from 57%	+2.7	n=40
+ vs the Big Ten	60-45	57%from 57%	+2.1	n=105
+ in the last 5 seasons	30-18	63%from 57%	+4.3	n=48
+ in October	22-18	55%from 57%	+2.7	n=40
+ in October	22-18	55%from 57%	+2.7	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-8	56%from 55%	+3.4	n=18

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Minnesota — the basics

138 graded games since 2014

at home	36-37	49%	+1.0	n=73
vs Michigan	3-3	50%	-2.1	n=6
in a conference game	52-45	54%	+0.9	n=97
vs an FBS opponent	71-62	53%	+1.0	n=133
vs a P5 opponent	62-51	55%	+1.7	n=113
vs the Big Ten	52-45	54%	+0.9	n=97
in October	23-18	56%	-0.2	n=41
at this venue	36-37	49%	+1.0	n=73
in the last 5 seasons	34-28	55%	+1.0	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Minnesota — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 138 graded games: +1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=138
Minnesota has covered 3 straight	n=3

Minnesota — combinations

121 lean Minnesota · 4 lean against

Read this first. 177 combinations shown. The best one here is 78%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in October + in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 56%	+1.0	n=17
at home + in October	13-9	59%from 49%	+1.9	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-2	78%from 59%	+7.5	n=9
+ at this venue	13-9	59%from 59%	+1.9	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-2	78%from 59%	+7.5	n=9
in October + at this venue	13-9	59%from 56%	+1.9	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-2	78%from 59%	+7.5	n=9
at home + in the last 5 seasons	18-14	56%from 49%	+2.6	n=32
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	18-14	56%from 49%	+2.6	n=32
in a conference game + in October	23-18	56%from 54%	-0.2	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 56%	+1.0	n=17
+ at this venue	13-9	59%from 56%	+1.9	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-2	78%from 59%	+7.5	n=9
vs an FBS opponent + in October	23-18	56%from 53%	-0.2	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 56%	+1.0	n=17
+ at this venue	13-9	59%from 56%	+1.9	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-2	78%from 59%	+7.5	n=9
vs a P5 opponent + in October	23-18	56%from 55%	-0.2	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 56%	+1.0	n=17
+ at this venue	13-9	59%from 56%	+1.9	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-2	78%from 59%	+7.5	n=9
vs the Big Ten + in October	23-18	56%from 54%	-0.2	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 56%	+1.0	n=17
+ at this venue	13-9	59%from 56%	+1.9	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-2	78%from 59%	+7.5	n=9

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.