How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Penn State — the basics
149 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 31-24 | 56% | +2.5 | n=55 |
| vs Northwestern | 2-3 | 40% | -11.4 | n=5 |
| in a conference game | 56-50 | 53% | +1.7 | n=106 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 84-63 | 57% | +2.3 | n=147 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 70-56 | 56% | +2.4 | n=126 |
| vs the Big Ten | 56-50 | 53% | +1.7 | n=106 |
| in October | 20-20 | 50% | +1.4 | n=40 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 38-29 | 57% | +2.2 | n=67 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Penn State — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -2.3 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 149 graded games: +2.2 pts vs their number per game | n=149 |
Penn State — combinations
50 lean Penn State · 52 lean against
Read this first. 113 combinations shown. The best one here is 62%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road + in the last 5 seasons | 15-9 | 63%from 56% | +3.8 | n=24 |
| vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 33-23 | 59%from 56% | +3.0 | n=56 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 38-27 | 58%from 57% | +2.4 | n=65 |
| on the road + vs a P5 opponent | 31-23 | 57%from 56% | +3.2 | n=54 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 15-9 | 63%from 57% | +3.8 | n=24 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 27-23 | 54%from 57% | +1.8 | n=50 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 13-9 | 59%from 54% | +2.3 | n=22 |
| + in October | 8-9 | 47%from 54% | -0.3 | n=17 |
| + in October | 8-9 | 47%from 57% | -0.3 | n=17 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-5 | 38%from 47% | -3.9 | n=8 |
| on the road + vs an FBS opponent | 31-24 | 56%from 56% | +2.5 | n=55 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 15-9 | 63%from 56% | +3.8 | n=24 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 31-23 | 57%from 56% | +3.2 | n=54 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 15-9 | 63%from 57% | +3.8 | n=24 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 27-23 | 54%from 57% | +1.8 | n=50 |
| + in October | 8-9 | 47%from 57% | -0.3 | n=17 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 27-23 | 54%from 56% | +1.8 | n=50 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 13-9 | 59%from 54% | +2.3 | n=22 |
| + in October | 8-9 | 47%from 54% | -0.3 | n=17 |
| + in October | 8-9 | 47%from 56% | -0.3 | n=17 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-5 | 38%from 47% | -3.9 | n=8 |
| vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent | 70-56 | 56%from 57% | +2.4 | n=126 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 33-23 | 59%from 56% | +3.0 | n=56 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 56-50 | 53%from 56% | +1.7 | n=106 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 25-20 | 56%from 53% | +1.9 | n=45 |
| + in October | 18-20 | 47%from 53% | +0.6 | n=38 |
| + in October | 20-20 | 50%from 56% | +1.4 | n=40 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-10 | 41%from 50% | -4.3 | n=17 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.