Michigan State at Wisconsin—

ST Model Wisconsin -3.5

Trends · 2026 week 5

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Michigan State — the basics

143 graded games since 2014

on the road	31-27	53%	+0.3	n=58
in a conference game	49-55	47%	-2.2	n=104
vs an FBS opponent	67-71	49%	-1.7	n=138
vs a P5 opponent	57-64	47%	-2.3	n=121
vs the Big Ten	49-55	47%	-2.2	n=104
in October	22-22	50%	-1.9	n=44
in the last 5 seasons	31-29	52%	-1.8	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Michigan State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -2.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 143 graded games: -1.9 pts vs their number per game	n=143
Michigan State has covered 2 straight	n=2

Michigan State — combinations

66 lean Michigan State · 13 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 70%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 57% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	17-8	68%from 53%	+1.7	n=25
in October + in the last 5 seasons	12-6	67%from 50%	-0.3	n=18
on the road + in a conference game	28-23	55%from 53%	+0.2	n=51
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-7	68%from 55%	+0.9	n=22
+ vs an FBS opponent	28-23	55%from 55%	+0.2	n=51
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-7	68%from 55%	+0.9	n=22
+ vs a P5 opponent	28-23	55%from 55%	+0.2	n=51
+ vs the Big Ten	28-23	55%from 55%	+0.2	n=51
+ in October	12-11	52%from 55%	+0.5	n=23
+ vs a P5 opponent	28-23	55%from 55%	+0.2	n=51
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-7	68%from 55%	+0.9	n=22
+ vs the Big Ten	28-23	55%from 55%	+0.2	n=51
+ in October	12-11	52%from 55%	+0.5	n=23
+ vs the Big Ten	28-23	55%from 55%	+0.2	n=51
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-7	68%from 55%	+0.9	n=22
+ in October	12-11	52%from 55%	+0.5	n=23
+ in October	12-11	52%from 55%	+0.5	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 52%	+0.4	n=10
on the road + vs the Big Ten	28-23	55%from 53%	+0.2	n=51
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-7	68%from 55%	+0.9	n=22
+ in October	12-11	52%from 55%	+0.5	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 52%	+0.4	n=10
on the road + vs a P5 opponent	31-26	54%from 53%	+0.5	n=57
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-8	68%from 54%	+1.7	n=25
+ vs the Big Ten	28-23	55%from 54%	+0.2	n=51
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-7	68%from 55%	+0.9	n=22
+ in October	12-11	52%from 55%	+0.5	n=23
+ in October	12-11	52%from 54%	+0.5	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 52%	+0.4	n=10

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Wisconsin — the basics

148 graded games since 2014

at home	32-44	42%	-0.9	n=76
in a conference game	52-53	50%	-0.7	n=105
vs an FBS opponent	73-72	50%	+0.0	n=145
vs a P5 opponent	62-63	50%	-0.7	n=125
vs the Big Ten	52-53	50%	-0.7	n=105
in October	25-21	54%	+0.7	n=46
at this venue	32-44	42%	-0.9	n=76
in the last 5 seasons	28-34	45%	-2.2	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Wisconsin — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 148 graded games: -0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=148

Wisconsin — combinations

25 lean Wisconsin · 129 lean against

Read this first. 162 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in October + in the last 5 seasons	12-9	57%from 54%	+1.6	n=21
in a conference game + in October	24-20	55%from 50%	+0.6	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 55%	+2.1	n=20
+ at this venue	11-13	46%from 55%	+0.3	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-7	36%from 46%	-5.7	n=11
vs the Big Ten + in October	24-20	55%from 50%	+0.6	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 55%	+2.1	n=20
+ at this venue	11-13	46%from 55%	+0.3	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-7	36%from 46%	-5.7	n=11
vs an FBS opponent + in October	25-21	54%from 50%	+0.7	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-9	57%from 54%	+1.6	n=21
+ at this venue	12-14	46%from 54%	+0.4	n=26
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-8	33%from 46%	-5.9	n=12
vs a P5 opponent + in October	24-21	53%from 50%	+0.4	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-9	57%from 53%	+1.6	n=21
+ at this venue	11-14	44%from 53%	-0.1	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-8	33%from 44%	-5.9	n=12
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	62-63	50%from 50%	-0.7	n=125
+ in October	24-21	53%from 50%	+0.4	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-9	57%from 53%	+1.6	n=21
+ at this venue	11-14	44%from 53%	-0.1	n=25
+ vs the Big Ten	52-53	50%from 50%	-0.7	n=105
+ in October	24-20	55%from 50%	+0.6	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-23	48%from 50%	-1.3	n=44
+ at this venue	21-29	42%from 50%	-1.4	n=50
+ in the last 5 seasons	24-30	44%from 50%	-2.4	n=54
+ at this venue	22-33	40%from 50%	-2.1	n=55
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-16	38%from 40%	-4.6	n=26

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.