Minnesota at Purdue—

ST Model Purdue -0.8

Trends · 2026 week 6

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Minnesota — the basics

138 graded games since 2014

on the road	29-25	54%	+0.6	n=54
vs Purdue	5-5	50%	+2.1	n=10
in a conference game	52-45	54%	+0.9	n=97
vs an FBS opponent	71-62	53%	+1.0	n=133
vs a P5 opponent	62-51	55%	+1.7	n=113
vs the Big Ten	52-45	54%	+0.9	n=97
in October	23-18	56%	-0.2	n=41
at this venue	3-2	60%	+2.3	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	34-28	55%	+1.0	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Minnesota — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 138 graded games: +1.2 pts vs their number per game	n=138
Minnesota has covered 3 straight	n=3

Minnesota — combinations

127 lean Minnesota · 22 lean against

Read this first. 177 combinations shown. The best one here is 65%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 75% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in October + in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 56%	+1.0	n=17
on the road + vs Purdue	3-2	60%from 54%	+2.3	n=5
+ in a conference game	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.3	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.3	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.3	n=5
+ vs the Big Ten	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.3	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.3	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.3	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.3	n=5
+ vs the Big Ten	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.3	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.3	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.3	n=5
+ vs the Big Ten	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.3	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.3	n=5
+ vs the Big Ten	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.3	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.3	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.3	n=5
on the road + at this venue	3-2	60%from 54%	+2.3	n=5
vs Purdue + at this venue	3-2	60%from 50%	+2.3	n=5
in a conference game + at this venue	3-2	60%from 54%	+2.3	n=5
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	3-2	60%from 53%	+2.3	n=5
vs a P5 opponent + at this venue	3-2	60%from 55%	+2.3	n=5
vs the Big Ten + at this venue	3-2	60%from 54%	+2.3	n=5
on the road + in a conference game	27-21	56%from 54%	+0.1	n=48
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 56%	+2.3	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	27-21	56%from 56%	+0.1	n=48
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 56%	+2.3	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	27-21	56%from 56%	+0.1	n=48
+ vs the Big Ten	27-21	56%from 56%	+0.1	n=48
+ in October	10-9	53%from 56%	-2.6	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-11	48%from 56%	-1.9	n=21
+ vs a P5 opponent	27-21	56%from 56%	+0.1	n=48
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 56%	+2.3	n=5
+ vs the Big Ten	27-21	56%from 56%	+0.1	n=48
+ in October	10-9	53%from 56%	-2.6	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-11	48%from 56%	-1.9	n=21
+ vs the Big Ten	27-21	56%from 56%	+0.1	n=48
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 56%	+2.3	n=5
+ in October	10-9	53%from 56%	-2.6	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-11	48%from 56%	-1.9	n=21
+ in October	10-9	53%from 56%	-2.6	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 53%	-6.4	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-11	48%from 56%	-1.9	n=21

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Purdue — the basics

138 graded games since 2014

at home	28-47	37%	-3.1	n=75
vs Minnesota	5-5	50%	-2.1	n=10
in a conference game	46-55	46%	-1.3	n=101
vs an FBS opponent	59-73	45%	-2.1	n=132
vs a P5 opponent	56-65	46%	-1.7	n=121
vs the Big Ten	46-55	46%	-1.3	n=101
in October	21-21	50%	+1.0	n=42
at this venue	28-47	37%	-3.1	n=75
in the last 5 seasons	24-38	39%	-3.1	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Purdue — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -6.3 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 138 graded games: -1.5 pts vs their number per game	n=138
Purdue has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Purdue — combinations

11 lean Purdue · 167 lean against

Read this first. 215 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs Minnesota + in October	3-2	60%from 50%	+1.7	n=5
in a conference game + in October	21-21	50%from 46%	+1.0	n=42
+ at this venue	6-12	33%from 50%	-2.1	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	0-7	0%from 33%	-9.6	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-12	29%from 50%	-3.6	n=17
vs an FBS opponent + in October	21-21	50%from 45%	+1.0	n=42
+ at this venue	6-12	33%from 50%	-2.1	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	0-7	0%from 33%	-9.6	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-12	29%from 50%	-3.6	n=17
vs a P5 opponent + in October	21-21	50%from 46%	+1.0	n=42
+ at this venue	6-12	33%from 50%	-2.1	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	0-7	0%from 33%	-9.6	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-12	29%from 50%	-3.6	n=17
vs the Big Ten + in October	21-21	50%from 46%	+1.0	n=42
+ at this venue	6-12	33%from 50%	-2.1	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	0-7	0%from 33%	-9.6	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-12	29%from 50%	-3.6	n=17
vs Minnesota + in a conference game	5-5	50%from 50%	-2.1	n=10
+ in October	3-2	60%from 50%	+1.7	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-5	50%from 50%	-2.1	n=10
+ in October	3-2	60%from 50%	+1.7	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-5	50%from 50%	-2.1	n=10
+ vs the Big Ten	5-5	50%from 50%	-2.1	n=10
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 50%	-2.3	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-5	50%from 50%	-2.1	n=10
+ in October	3-2	60%from 50%	+1.7	n=5
+ vs the Big Ten	5-5	50%from 50%	-2.1	n=10
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 50%	-2.3	n=5
+ vs the Big Ten	5-5	50%from 50%	-2.1	n=10
+ in October	3-2	60%from 50%	+1.7	n=5
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 50%	-2.3	n=5
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 50%	-2.3	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.