Oregon at Illinois—

ST Model Oregon -8.5

Trends · 2026 week 8

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Oregon — the basics

146 graded games since 2014

on the road	32-22	59%	+0.8	n=54
in a conference game	58-48	55%	-1.0	n=106
vs an FBS opponent	71-65	52%	-0.5	n=136
vs a P5 opponent	67-59	53%	-0.7	n=126
vs the Big Ten	14-13	52%	-0.7	n=27
in October	21-18	54%	-3.5	n=39
in the last 5 seasons	39-29	57%	+1.7	n=68

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Oregon — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 146 graded games: -0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=146

Oregon — combinations

86 lean Oregon · 0 lean against

Read this first. 93 combinations shown. The best one here is 88%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	17-8	68%from 59%	+3.9	n=25
on the road + in October	11-6	65%from 59%	-1.9	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-1	88%from 65%	+7.6	n=8
in October + in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 54%	+1.8	n=18
on the road + vs the Big Ten	6-4	60%from 59%	+5.5	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 60%	+5.5	n=10
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	32-22	59%from 59%	+0.8	n=54
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-8	68%from 59%	+3.9	n=25
+ in October	11-6	65%from 59%	-1.9	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-1	88%from 65%	+7.6	n=8
+ vs the Big Ten	6-4	60%from 59%	+5.5	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 60%	+5.5	n=10
+ vs a P5 opponent	31-22	58%from 59%	+0.3	n=53
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-8	68%from 58%	+3.9	n=25
+ in October	11-6	65%from 58%	-1.9	n=17
+ vs the Big Ten	6-4	60%from 58%	+5.5	n=10
on the road + vs a P5 opponent	31-22	58%from 59%	+0.3	n=53
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-8	68%from 58%	+3.9	n=25
+ in October	11-6	65%from 58%	-1.9	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-1	88%from 65%	+7.6	n=8
+ vs the Big Ten	6-4	60%from 58%	+5.5	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 60%	+5.5	n=10
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	28-20	58%from 55%	+0.5	n=48
in a conference game + vs the Big Ten	11-8	58%from 55%	+1.5	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-8	58%from 58%	+1.5	n=19
+ in October	4-3	57%from 58%	+1.4	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 57%	+1.4	n=7

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Illinois — the basics

139 graded games since 2014

at home	33-40	45%	-0.8	n=73
in a conference game	51-51	50%	-0.1	n=102
vs an FBS opponent	62-71	47%	-0.5	n=133
vs a P5 opponent	56-58	49%	-0.3	n=114
vs the Big Ten	51-51	50%	-0.1	n=102
in October	20-23	47%	+0.4	n=43
at this venue	33-40	45%	-0.8	n=73
in the last 5 seasons	35-26	57%	+2.4	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Illinois — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.9 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 139 graded games: -0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=139

Illinois — combinations

14 lean Illinois · 130 lean against

Read this first. 162 combinations shown. The best one here is 58%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	30-22	58%from 49%	+2.4	n=52
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	25-19	57%from 50%	+1.9	n=44
vs the Big Ten + in the last 5 seasons	25-19	57%from 50%	+1.9	n=44
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	32-26	55%from 47%	+2.1	n=58
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	51-51	50%from 50%	-0.1	n=102
+ in the last 5 seasons	25-19	57%from 50%	+1.9	n=44
+ vs a P5 opponent	51-51	50%from 50%	-0.1	n=102
+ in the last 5 seasons	25-19	57%from 50%	+1.9	n=44
+ vs the Big Ten	51-51	50%from 50%	-0.1	n=102
+ in October	20-22	48%from 50%	+0.4	n=42
+ at this venue	20-29	41%from 50%	-2.5	n=49
+ vs the Big Ten	51-51	50%from 50%	-0.1	n=102
+ in the last 5 seasons	25-19	57%from 50%	+1.9	n=44
+ in October	20-22	48%from 50%	+0.4	n=42
+ at this venue	20-29	41%from 50%	-2.5	n=49
+ in October	20-22	48%from 50%	+0.4	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-9	44%from 48%	+3.0	n=16
+ at this venue	8-13	38%from 48%	-1.9	n=21
+ at this venue	20-29	41%from 50%	-2.5	n=49
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-13	41%from 41%	+0.3	n=22
in a conference game + vs a P5 opponent	51-51	50%from 50%	-0.1	n=102
+ in the last 5 seasons	25-19	57%from 50%	+1.9	n=44
+ vs the Big Ten	51-51	50%from 50%	-0.1	n=102
+ in the last 5 seasons	25-19	57%from 50%	+1.9	n=44
+ in October	20-22	48%from 50%	+0.4	n=42
+ at this venue	20-29	41%from 50%	-2.5	n=49
+ in October	20-22	48%from 50%	+0.4	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-9	44%from 48%	+3.0	n=16
+ at this venue	8-13	38%from 48%	-1.9	n=21
+ at this venue	20-29	41%from 50%	-2.5	n=49
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-13	41%from 41%	+0.3	n=22

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.