How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Nevada — the basics
138 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 38-29 | 57% | +1.2 | n=67 |
| out of conference | 23-25 | 48% | -1.1 | n=48 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 70-59 | 54% | +0.8 | n=129 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 12-12 | 50% | -0.0 | n=24 |
| vs the Big Ten | 3-3 | 50% | +2.9 | n=6 |
| in October | 24-16 | 60% | +1.6 | n=40 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 29-31 | 48% | -0.3 | n=60 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Nevada — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -0.4 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 138 graded games: +0.3 pts vs their number per game | n=138 |
Nevada — combinations
15 lean Nevada · 19 lean against
Read this first. 53 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 70% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road + in October | 13-6 | 68%from 57% | +3.2 | n=19 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-2 | 80%from 68% | +4.0 | n=10 |
| on the road + in the last 5 seasons | 19-11 | 63%from 57% | +1.9 | n=30 |
| in October + in the last 5 seasons | 12-7 | 63%from 60% | +1.0 | n=19 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in October | 24-16 | 60%from 54% | +1.6 | n=40 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 12-7 | 63%from 60% | +1.0 | n=19 |
| on the road + vs an FBS opponent | 38-29 | 57%from 57% | +1.2 | n=67 |
| + in October | 13-6 | 68%from 57% | +3.2 | n=19 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-2 | 80%from 68% | +4.0 | n=10 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 19-11 | 63%from 57% | +1.9 | n=30 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 7-9 | 44%from 57% | -4.0 | n=16 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-4 | 43%from 44% | -4.1 | n=7 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 2-3 | 40%from 44% | +0.7 | n=5 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 2-3 | 40%from 57% | +0.7 | n=5 |
| vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 6-5 | 55%from 50% | +2.0 | n=11 |
| out of conference + vs an FBS opponent | 20-19 | 51%from 48% | +0.1 | n=39 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 12-12 | 50%from 51% | -0.0 | n=24 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-5 | 55%from 50% | +2.0 | n=11 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 3-3 | 50%from 50% | +2.9 | n=6 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 3-3 | 50%from 51% | +2.9 | n=6 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 9-10 | 47%from 51% | +0.2 | n=19 |
| out of conference + vs a P5 opponent | 12-12 | 50%from 48% | -0.0 | n=24 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-5 | 55%from 50% | +2.0 | n=11 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 3-3 | 50%from 50% | +2.9 | n=6 |
| vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent | 12-12 | 50%from 54% | -0.0 | n=24 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-5 | 55%from 50% | +2.0 | n=11 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 3-3 | 50%from 50% | +2.9 | n=6 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.