Wisconsin at Purdue—

ST Model Purdue -0.2

Trends · 2026 week 12

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Wisconsin — the basics

148 graded games since 2014

on the road	32-23	58%	+1.8	n=55
vs Purdue	7-3	70%	+6.8	n=10
in a conference game	52-53	50%	-0.7	n=105
vs an FBS opponent	73-72	50%	+0.0	n=145
vs a P5 opponent	62-63	50%	-0.7	n=125
vs the Big Ten	52-53	50%	-0.7	n=105
in November	23-21	52%	+0.7	n=44
at this venue	5-0	100%	+8.1	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	28-34	45%	-2.2	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Wisconsin — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 148 graded games: -0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=148

Wisconsin — combinations

112 lean Wisconsin · 45 lean against

Read this first. 166 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 63% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 53.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + vs Purdue	5-0	100%from 58%	+8.1	n=5
+ in a conference game	5-0	100%from 100%	+8.1	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-0	100%from 100%	+8.1	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-0	100%from 100%	+8.1	n=5
+ vs the Big Ten	5-0	100%from 100%	+8.1	n=5
+ at this venue	5-0	100%from 100%	+8.1	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-0	100%from 100%	+8.1	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-0	100%from 100%	+8.1	n=5
+ vs the Big Ten	5-0	100%from 100%	+8.1	n=5
+ at this venue	5-0	100%from 100%	+8.1	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	5-0	100%from 100%	+8.1	n=5
+ vs the Big Ten	5-0	100%from 100%	+8.1	n=5
+ at this venue	5-0	100%from 100%	+8.1	n=5
+ vs the Big Ten	5-0	100%from 100%	+8.1	n=5
+ at this venue	5-0	100%from 100%	+8.1	n=5
+ at this venue	5-0	100%from 100%	+8.1	n=5
on the road + at this venue	5-0	100%from 58%	+8.1	n=5
vs Purdue + at this venue	5-0	100%from 70%	+8.1	n=5
in a conference game + at this venue	5-0	100%from 50%	+8.1	n=5
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	5-0	100%from 50%	+8.1	n=5
vs a P5 opponent + at this venue	5-0	100%from 50%	+8.1	n=5
vs the Big Ten + at this venue	5-0	100%from 50%	+8.1	n=5
vs Purdue + in a conference game	7-3	70%from 70%	+6.8	n=10
+ at this venue	5-0	100%from 70%	+8.1	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	7-3	70%from 70%	+6.8	n=10
+ at this venue	5-0	100%from 70%	+8.1	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-3	70%from 70%	+6.8	n=10
+ vs the Big Ten	7-3	70%from 70%	+6.8	n=10
+ vs a P5 opponent	7-3	70%from 70%	+6.8	n=10
+ at this venue	5-0	100%from 70%	+8.1	n=5
+ vs the Big Ten	7-3	70%from 70%	+6.8	n=10
+ vs the Big Ten	7-3	70%from 70%	+6.8	n=10
+ at this venue	5-0	100%from 70%	+8.1	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Purdue — the basics

138 graded games since 2014

at home	28-47	37%	-3.1	n=75
vs Wisconsin	3-7	30%	-6.8	n=10
in a conference game	46-55	46%	-1.3	n=101
vs an FBS opponent	59-73	45%	-2.1	n=132
vs a P5 opponent	56-65	46%	-1.7	n=121
vs the Big Ten	46-55	46%	-1.3	n=101
in November	22-23	49%	-2.5	n=45
at this venue	28-47	37%	-3.1	n=75
in the last 5 seasons	24-38	39%	-3.1	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Purdue — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -6.3 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 138 graded games: -1.5 pts vs their number per game	n=138
Purdue has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Purdue — combinations

0 lean Purdue · 184 lean against

Read this first. 204 combinations shown. The best one here is 50%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in November + in the last 5 seasons	10-10	50%from 49%	-0.6	n=20
in a conference game + in November	22-23	49%from 46%	-2.5	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-10	50%from 49%	-0.6	n=20
+ at this venue	8-15	35%from 49%	-5.1	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 35%	-1.9	n=10
vs an FBS opponent + in November	22-23	49%from 45%	-2.5	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-10	50%from 49%	-0.6	n=20
+ at this venue	8-15	35%from 49%	-5.1	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 35%	-1.9	n=10
vs a P5 opponent + in November	22-23	49%from 46%	-2.5	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-10	50%from 49%	-0.6	n=20
+ at this venue	8-15	35%from 49%	-5.1	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 35%	-1.9	n=10
vs the Big Ten + in November	22-23	49%from 46%	-2.5	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-10	50%from 49%	-0.6	n=20
+ at this venue	8-15	35%from 49%	-5.1	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 35%	-1.9	n=10
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	56-65	46%from 45%	-1.7	n=121
+ in November	22-23	49%from 46%	-2.5	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-10	50%from 49%	-0.6	n=20
+ at this venue	8-15	35%from 49%	-5.1	n=23
+ vs the Big Ten	46-55	46%from 46%	-1.3	n=101
+ in November	22-23	49%from 46%	-2.5	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-28	38%from 46%	-2.6	n=45
+ at this venue	16-36	31%from 46%	-3.6	n=52
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-35	38%from 46%	-3.8	n=56
+ at this venue	20-40	33%from 46%	-4.2	n=60
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-19	27%from 33%	-5.9	n=26

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.