How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Illinois — the basics
139 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 31-27 | 53% | +1.0 | n=58 |
| vs Northwestern | 5-6 | 45% | +1.2 | n=11 |
| in a conference game | 51-51 | 50% | -0.1 | n=102 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 62-71 | 47% | -0.5 | n=133 |
| vs a P5 opponent | 56-58 | 49% | -0.3 | n=114 |
| vs the Big Ten | 51-51 | 50% | -0.1 | n=102 |
| in November | 24-19 | 56% | +1.2 | n=43 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 35-26 | 57% | +2.4 | n=61 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Illinois — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -1.9 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 139 graded games: -0.0 pts vs their number per game | n=139 |
Illinois — combinations
91 lean Illinois · 15 lean against
Read this first. 135 combinations shown. The best one here is 88%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 62% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road + in November | 15-6 | 71%from 53% | +6.7 | n=21 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-1 | 88%from 71% | +6.2 | n=8 |
| on the road + in the last 5 seasons | 16-8 | 67%from 53% | +3.1 | n=24 |
| in November + in the last 5 seasons | 12-6 | 67%from 56% | +3.1 | n=18 |
| on the road + vs Northwestern | 3-2 | 60%from 53% | +8.8 | n=5 |
| + in a conference game | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +8.8 | n=5 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +8.8 | n=5 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +8.8 | n=5 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +8.8 | n=5 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +8.8 | n=5 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +8.8 | n=5 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +8.8 | n=5 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +8.8 | n=5 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +8.8 | n=5 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +8.8 | n=5 |
| on the road + in a conference game | 30-21 | 59%from 53% | +2.3 | n=51 |
| + in November | 15-6 | 71%from 59% | +6.7 | n=21 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-1 | 88%from 71% | +6.2 | n=8 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 15-6 | 71%from 59% | +3.5 | n=21 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 30-21 | 59%from 59% | +2.3 | n=51 |
| + in November | 15-6 | 71%from 59% | +6.7 | n=21 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 15-6 | 71%from 59% | +3.5 | n=21 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 30-21 | 59%from 59% | +2.3 | n=51 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 30-21 | 59%from 59% | +2.3 | n=51 |
| + vs a P5 opponent | 30-21 | 59%from 59% | +2.3 | n=51 |
| + in November | 15-6 | 71%from 59% | +6.7 | n=21 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 15-6 | 71%from 59% | +3.5 | n=21 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 30-21 | 59%from 59% | +2.3 | n=51 |
| + vs the Big Ten | 30-21 | 59%from 59% | +2.3 | n=51 |
| + in November | 15-6 | 71%from 59% | +6.7 | n=21 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 15-6 | 71%from 59% | +3.5 | n=21 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.