Penn State at Maryland—

ST Model Penn State -16.8

Trends · 2026 week 13

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Penn State — the basics

149 graded games since 2014

on the road	31-24	56%	+2.5	n=55
vs Maryland	8-3	73%	+13.4	n=11
in a conference game	56-50	53%	+1.7	n=106
vs an FBS opponent	84-63	57%	+2.3	n=147
vs a P5 opponent	70-56	56%	+2.4	n=126
vs the Big Ten	56-50	53%	+1.7	n=106
in November	25-23	52%	+1.8	n=48
in the last 5 seasons	38-29	57%	+2.2	n=67

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Penn State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -2.3 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 149 graded games: +2.2 pts vs their number per game	n=149

Penn State — combinations

116 lean Penn State · 0 lean against

Read this first. 124 combinations shown. The best one here is 75%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 70% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs Maryland + in November	6-2	75%from 73%	+10.0	n=8
vs Maryland + in a conference game	8-3	73%from 73%	+13.4	n=11
+ in November	6-2	75%from 73%	+10.0	n=8
+ vs an FBS opponent	8-3	73%from 73%	+13.4	n=11
+ in November	6-2	75%from 73%	+10.0	n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-3	73%from 73%	+13.4	n=11
+ vs the Big Ten	8-3	73%from 73%	+13.4	n=11
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-3	73%from 73%	+13.4	n=11
+ in November	6-2	75%from 73%	+10.0	n=8
+ vs the Big Ten	8-3	73%from 73%	+13.4	n=11
+ vs the Big Ten	8-3	73%from 73%	+13.4	n=11
+ in November	6-2	75%from 73%	+10.0	n=8
vs Maryland + vs an FBS opponent	8-3	73%from 73%	+13.4	n=11
+ in November	6-2	75%from 73%	+10.0	n=8
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-3	73%from 73%	+13.4	n=11
+ in November	6-2	75%from 73%	+10.0	n=8
+ vs the Big Ten	8-3	73%from 73%	+13.4	n=11
+ vs the Big Ten	8-3	73%from 73%	+13.4	n=11
+ in November	6-2	75%from 73%	+10.0	n=8
vs Maryland + vs a P5 opponent	8-3	73%from 73%	+13.4	n=11
+ in November	6-2	75%from 73%	+10.0	n=8
+ vs the Big Ten	8-3	73%from 73%	+13.4	n=11
+ in November	6-2	75%from 73%	+10.0	n=8
vs Maryland + vs the Big Ten	8-3	73%from 73%	+13.4	n=11
+ in November	6-2	75%from 73%	+10.0	n=8

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Maryland — the basics

139 graded games since 2014

at home	32-39	45%	-3.1	n=71
vs Penn State	3-8	27%	-13.4	n=11
in a conference game	39-61	39%	-4.7	n=100
vs an FBS opponent	58-74	44%	-2.3	n=132
vs a P5 opponent	50-65	43%	-2.5	n=115
vs the Big Ten	39-61	39%	-4.7	n=100
in November	16-30	35%	-5.3	n=46
at this venue	32-39	45%	-3.1	n=71
in the last 5 seasons	28-35	44%	-1.2	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Maryland — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.9 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 139 graded games: -1.8 pts vs their number per game	n=139
Maryland has failed to cover 5 straight	n=5

Maryland — combinations

0 lean Maryland · 179 lean against

Read this first. 188 combinations shown. The best one here is 46%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 57% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	27-32	46%from 44%	-1.3	n=59
at home + vs an FBS opponent	29-35	45%from 45%	-4.2	n=64
+ at this venue	29-35	45%from 45%	-4.2	n=64
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-17	45%from 45%	-3.1	n=31
+ vs a P5 opponent	24-29	45%from 45%	-4.2	n=53
+ at this venue	24-29	45%from 45%	-4.2	n=53
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-14	44%from 45%	-4.6	n=25
+ vs the Big Ten	20-28	42%from 45%	-6.2	n=48
+ in November	6-15	29%from 45%	-10.2	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-17	45%from 45%	-3.1	n=31
+ vs the Big Ten	20-28	42%from 45%	-6.2	n=48
+ at this venue	20-28	42%from 42%	-6.2	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-14	36%from 42%	-7.2	n=22
+ in November	6-15	29%from 42%	-10.2	n=21
+ in November	6-15	29%from 45%	-10.2	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-7	30%from 29%	-8.0	n=10
+ at this venue	6-15	29%from 29%	-10.2	n=21
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	29-35	45%from 44%	-4.2	n=64
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-17	45%from 45%	-3.1	n=31
at home + vs a P5 opponent	24-29	45%from 45%	-4.2	n=53
+ at this venue	24-29	45%from 45%	-4.2	n=53
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-14	44%from 45%	-4.6	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-14	44%from 45%	-4.6	n=25
+ vs the Big Ten	20-28	42%from 45%	-6.2	n=48
+ at this venue	20-28	42%from 42%	-6.2	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-14	36%from 42%	-7.2	n=22
+ in November	6-15	29%from 42%	-10.2	n=21
+ in November	6-15	29%from 45%	-10.2	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-7	30%from 29%	-8.0	n=10
+ at this venue	6-15	29%from 29%	-10.2	n=21

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.