Michigan at Ohio StateOhio State -13.5o/u 45.5

ST Model Ohio State -12.8(-0.7 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 13

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Michigan — the basics

150 graded games since 2014

on the road	29-25	54%	+1.5	n=54
vs Ohio State	7-4	64%	+0.7	n=11
as an underdog	15-18	45%	-2.7	n=33
spread 11-14	8-4	67%	+7.3	n=12
in a conference game	60-45	57%	+2.1	n=105
vs an FBS opponent	78-72	52%	+1.4	n=150
vs a P5 opponent	70-59	54%	+1.6	n=129
vs the Big Ten	60-45	57%	+2.1	n=105
in November	27-21	56%	+1.0	n=48
at this venue	4-1	80%	+7.3	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	39-30	57%	+3.4	n=69

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Michigan — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 150 graded games: +1.4 pts vs their number per game	n=150
Michigan has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Michigan — combinations

307 lean Michigan · 3 lean against

Read this first. 336 combinations shown. The best one here is 89%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + vs Ohio State	4-1	80%from 54%	+7.3	n=5
+ in a conference game	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ vs the Big Ten	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ in November	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ vs the Big Ten	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ in November	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ vs a P5 opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ vs the Big Ten	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ in November	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ vs the Big Ten	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ in November	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ in November	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+7.3	n=5
on the road + at this venue	4-1	80%from 54%	+7.3	n=5
vs Ohio State + at this venue	4-1	80%from 64%	+7.3	n=5
vs Ohio State + in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 64%	+14.0	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Ohio State — the basics

154 graded games since 2014

at home	45-34	57%	+3.7	n=79
vs Michigan	4-7	36%	-0.7	n=11
as a favorite	78-65	55%	+2.5	n=143
spread 11-14	2-8	20%	-9.4	n=10
in a conference game	59-45	57%	+3.3	n=104
vs an FBS opponent	85-67	56%	+3.5	n=152
vs a P5 opponent	74-59	56%	+2.6	n=133
vs the Big Ten	60-46	57%	+3.3	n=106
in November	23-25	48%	-0.1	n=48
at this venue	45-34	57%	+3.7	n=79
in the last 5 seasons	39-25	61%	+2.3	n=64

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Ohio State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +3.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 154 graded games: +3.4 pts vs their number per game	n=154
Ohio State has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Ohio State — combinations

221 lean Ohio State · 145 lean against

Read this first. 377 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + in the last 5 seasons	24-11	69%from 57%	+3.7	n=35
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	24-11	69%from 57%	+3.7	n=35
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	27-15	64%from 57%	+2.6	n=42
vs the Big Ten + in the last 5 seasons	28-16	64%from 57%	+2.7	n=44
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	34-20	63%from 56%	+1.9	n=54
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	38-24	61%from 56%	+2.4	n=62
as a favorite + in the last 5 seasons	37-24	61%from 55%	+2.3	n=61
at home + in a conference game	30-20	60%from 57%	+3.2	n=50
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-4	81%from 60%	+4.2	n=21
+ vs an FBS opponent	30-20	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=50
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-4	81%from 60%	+4.2	n=21
+ vs a P5 opponent	30-20	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=50
+ vs the Big Ten	30-20	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=50
+ at this venue	30-20	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=50
+ in November	15-12	56%from 60%	+2.0	n=27
+ vs a P5 opponent	30-20	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=50
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-4	81%from 60%	+4.2	n=21
+ vs the Big Ten	30-20	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=50
+ at this venue	30-20	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=50
+ in November	15-12	56%from 60%	+2.0	n=27
+ vs the Big Ten	30-20	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=50
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-4	81%from 60%	+4.2	n=21
+ at this venue	30-20	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=50
+ in November	15-12	56%from 60%	+2.0	n=27
+ at this venue	30-20	60%from 60%	+3.2	n=50
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-4	81%from 60%	+4.2	n=21
+ in November	15-12	56%from 60%	+2.0	n=27
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-2	83%from 56%	+2.6	n=12
+ at this venue	15-12	56%from 56%	+2.0	n=27

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.