How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Notre Dame — the basics
148 graded games since 2014
| at a neutral site | 18-9 | 67% | +5.8 | n=27 |
| vs Navy | 7-3 | 70% | +5.5 | n=10 |
| out of conference | 77-55 | 58% | +3.3 | n=132 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 85-62 | 58% | +3.5 | n=147 |
| vs a G5 opponent | 16-12 | 57% | +1.7 | n=28 |
| vs the American Athletic | 10-4 | 71% | +7.6 | n=14 |
| in October | 22-14 | 61% | +3.9 | n=36 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 43-23 | 65% | +6.4 | n=66 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Notre Dame — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: +4.5 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 148 graded games: +3.5 pts vs their number per game | n=148 |
Notre Dame — combinations
75 lean Notre Dame · 4 lean against
Read this first. 91 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| at a neutral site + vs a G5 opponent | 4-1 | 80%from 67% | +10.4 | n=5 |
| + vs the American Athletic | 4-1 | 80%from 80% | +10.4 | n=5 |
| at a neutral site + vs the American Athletic | 4-1 | 80%from 67% | +10.4 | n=5 |
| vs Navy + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 70% | +8.7 | n=5 |
| vs Navy + vs a G5 opponent | 7-2 | 78%from 70% | +6.6 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 78% | +8.7 | n=5 |
| + vs the American Athletic | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +6.6 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 78% | +8.7 | n=5 |
| vs Navy + vs the American Athletic | 7-2 | 78%from 70% | +6.6 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 78% | +8.7 | n=5 |
| at a neutral site + in the last 5 seasons | 10-3 | 77%from 67% | +10.2 | n=13 |
| out of conference + vs the American Athletic | 10-4 | 71%from 58% | +7.6 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-2 | 71%from 71% | +7.9 | n=7 |
| vs an FBS opponent + vs the American Athletic | 10-4 | 71%from 58% | +7.6 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-2 | 71%from 71% | +7.9 | n=7 |
| vs a G5 opponent + vs the American Athletic | 10-4 | 71%from 57% | +7.6 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-2 | 71%from 71% | +7.9 | n=7 |
| vs the American Athletic + in the last 5 seasons | 5-2 | 71%from 71% | +7.9 | n=7 |
| vs Navy + out of conference | 7-3 | 70%from 70% | +5.5 | n=10 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 70% | +8.7 | n=5 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 7-2 | 78%from 70% | +6.6 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 78% | +8.7 | n=5 |
| + vs the American Athletic | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +6.6 | n=9 |
| + vs the American Athletic | 7-2 | 78%from 70% | +6.6 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 78% | +8.7 | n=5 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 7-3 | 70%from 70% | +5.5 | n=10 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 70% | +8.7 | n=5 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 7-2 | 78%from 70% | +6.6 | n=9 |
| + vs the American Athletic | 7-2 | 78%from 70% | +6.6 | n=9 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.